Upstream divergence inventory: 402 ahead / 896 behind (v7.1.2 -> v10.3.0) — PR audit, risk table, resync options #267

Context

User mandate 26/09 ("pérennisation upstream"), coordinator GO 19:09Z (grains a+b, carrier po-2025). Deliverable = divergence risk table + owner-arbitration list, feeding the resync-strategy arbitration (c).

Facts, measured from the hub clone: merge-base 980ea089 (2026-05-09, v7.1.2); 402 commits ahead / 896 behind; upstream now at v10.3.0 (2026-09-24), with three breaking majors (8.0, 9.0, 10.0) and 10.x releases every 1-3 days through September.

(a) The 402, classified by path footprint

Core-commit themes (by subject): stream/SSE robustness ~57 (never-hang family, S4 index-mapping, finalize, first-event watchdog) · failover/budget ~30 · tool handling ~23 · capture ~19 · thinking dialects ~14 · openai-ingress ~13 · relay ~12 · GLM ~12.

(b) Upstream PR audit — all 21 PRs ever opened against MadAppGang/claudish

0 merged as-is. 1 open. 20 closed — but Read-Body changes the reading completely:

• 5 opened against the wrong repo by mistake (feat(failover): role-as-failover-step - a cascade step can delegate to another role #274, feat(scripts): qwen monthly-credit guard — two-point calibration, now calibrated live (P0 71.4% → P1 41%) #260, Hub strips images silently: vision agents answer blind (glm-4.6v, glm-5.3-flash) -- catalog fail-closed + dead vision proxy #222, fix(proxy): pin the native lane to the configured role model #218, chore: ignore Python bytecode from the scripts/ analysis organs #147) — the known gh pr create targets-the-parent trap, hit five times. Process fix candidate.
• 4 self-closed as superseded/reshaped (fix(parsers): invalid_prompt policy refusals — anthropic-sse + openai-sse lanes, counting marker #137, feat(capability): wire the negotiated capability vocabulary (#83) #135, fix(failover): per-session dwell — one conversation, one provider switch per dwell (#91 point 4) #128, fix(scripts): forward -Recreate through the standalone drain path #125 — fix(scripts): forward -Recreate through the standalone drain path #125 after the owner asked for header names we could not produce without a Max sub).
• 11 closed by the owner (erudenko) who reimplemented the change himself, always with credit: Invoke-GitBounded REPLACES the global git config, so untracked-only(N) is inflated where a global excludesFile exists #184→fix(scripts): invert relaunch-preflight execute — a GUI-up invocation is a false green (#205) #207 (v7.58.0), fix(watchdog): let git answer under SYSTEM — scoped safe.directory via GIT_CONFIG_GLOBAL (#182) #183→compress-captures: a second producer destroys the first machine's day in the shared off-site namespace #201, feat(scripts): persist docker container lifecycle events — collector, no actuator (#169) #180→fix(scripts): invert relaunch-preflight execute — a GUI-up invocation is a false green (#205) #207, fix(failover): a 429 naming a window is a burst even in quota vocabulary #143→Detect the Docker Desktop forwarder wedge and tell it apart from a hub hang — detection only, no actuator #172 ("branch had gone conflicting"), isQuotaExhaustion matche "quota" nu : un 429 par-minute arme le switch hebdomadaire #140→PROVENANCE reads 'unversioned (exit 128)' under SYSTEM: git refuses the operator-owned tree (dubious ownership) #182, feat(scripts): compaction telemetry across lanes (#89) #134→feat(tokens): split prompt_tokens into the three input counters (S4-c — la table S4-b est épuisée) #179, fix(failover): grow the arm TTL while the wall holds (#91 point 3) #127→fix(scripts): relaunch preflight reads high-bit HRESULTs as [long]; already-running task becomes SKIPPED #200 ("the fixtures are what made it possible"), fix(failover): factual notices + enumerate remaining fallbacks (doctrine 2026-08-23) #126→228db3c, drain.ps1: standalone (-File) path cannot recreate — -Recreate degrades to a plain docker restart #124/fix(never-hang): bound the first-useful-event deadline — keep-alive-only streams no longer hold hub slots ~900s #123 fixed on main, docs(sidecar): an armed cascade lives in no env file, so a recreate destroys it #142 close-never-fired, feat(capability): negotiated capability vocabulary module + design spec (#83) #133 answered by other means. One unexplained: feat(scripts): harness block detection beyond messages[0] (#23 L1) #138 (closed, zero comments).

Owner's standing pattern: he does not maintain fork PRs; he absorbs findings and reimplements them in his own architecture, crediting the finder. On #184 he re-verified our premise himself, apologized for a premature close, asked us to send the fix, then built it anyway and apologized for the reversal ("The finding is yours and the commit says so"). Implication: the contribution currency upstream is precise findings + fixtures, not long-lived PRs.

The one live thread: #237 (Fable version-independent mapping) — open since 09-11, zero owner response (only the Claude bot review-disabled comment). Last genuine upstream contribution attempt.

Key negative finding: the findings->upstream pipeline stopped mid-September. None of the September core work (S4-a/b, never-hang corpus re-check, #108 first-event watchdog, #170 pre-visible re-forward, policy-refusal retry, OpenAI ingress, #262 sanitizer, #264 anti-revisit) has been offered upstream.

Risk table

Options for arbitration (c) — NOT decided here

• (i) Rebase onto v10.3 — refuted by R1 (cadence mismatch).
• (ii) Fleet-layer quarantine + batched porting — declare the fork a long-lived derivative; refactor our core deltas behind stable seams (the three-layer adapter architecture is already that seam); port upstream releases as features on OUR cadence; resume contributing findings + fixtures upstream (owner's stated currency). Requires a dedupe pass first (R2).
• (iii) Full reset on v10.3 + re-apply fleet layer — highest cost/risk, fallback if (ii) fails.

Recommendation (for coordinator then user): (ii), dedupe pass first, quarterly port window, findings-pipeline revival (R4) as the cheap high-value half.

Verification trail

• Classification: git log upstream/main..main --format=@@ --name-only + path-footprint awk (scripts, counts above, 402 total).
• PR states: gh pr list --author jsboige --state all + per-PR last-comment reads (Read-Body rule).
• Versions: upstream CHANGELOG.md + package.json at upstream/main (10.3.0, 2026-09-24).

🤖 Generated with Claude Code