How a collective decides which specialist acts, in biology and in current
agentic systems, and which of those mechanisms can be encoded as a pure fold
over an attributed transcript with fixed-point integer arithmetic. This is the
reading behind ../specs/expert-delegation.md
and ADR 0007.
Before this work the library could express "who is here" and "who spoke", and
could not express "who knows". RosterMember is {id, name}; the only
expertise-shaped field, AgentThreshold.affinity, was host-supplied and never
written by the library; cross-desk referral routed to a named target's home
desk with nothing choosing the target by expertise; the responder ladder's
selector saw a role string and nothing derived from the transcript.
For each mechanism: the rule an individual runs on local information, then what a transcript would have to represent to fold it.
Fixed response thresholds (Bonabeau, Theraulaz & Deneubourg 1996; 1998).
Individual i carries a private threshold θᵢⱼ per task j; task j emits a
public stimulus sⱼ that rises while undone; engage with probability
sⱼⁿ/(sⱼⁿ + θᵢⱼⁿ), n = 2. Two castes with θ₁ < θ₂ produce the whole allocation
with no allocator and no messages. Fold: the attention market's argmax over
urge - threshold already is this. The missing half is that stimulus is not
per task: salience is per trace and relevance is a static lookup.
Threshold reinforcement (Theraulaz, Bonabeau & Deneubourg 1998). θ falls by ξ per unit time on the task and rises by φ off it, clamped to [θ_min, θ_max]. Specialists emerge from a homogeneous population and the specialisation reverses when the specialist leaves. The clamp is load-bearing; MAX–MIN Ant System (Stützle & Hoos 2000) uses the same clamp against premature convergence. Fold: affinity as a count of own deposits on a topic, clamped, which is commutative; iterated updates are not.
Foraging for work (Tofts & Franks 1992; Franks & Tofts 1994). No thresholds:
wander, do work where found, drift to an adjacent zone otherwise. Fold:
topic adjacency is co-citation, a graph over cites. Probably over-engineering.
Interaction-rate encoding (Gordon 1996; Gordon & Mehdiabadi 1999; Greene & Gordon 2007; Prabhakar, Dektar & Gordon 2012). A harvester ant decides whether to forage from the rate of brief contacts with returning foragers, not from what any contact says. Fold: the arrival rate of a topic's traces over a window is itself an allocation signal, and the library does not measure it.
Honeybee recruitment. The waggle dance advertises a site with intensity
proportional to the scout's own absolute private estimate (Seeley & Visscher
2008); roughly 5% of bees ever visit more than one site, so nobody compares.
Advertising decays by a fixed absolute amount per return (Seeley & Visscher
2003), a quality-proportional survival filter. The tremble dance (Seeley
1992) fires when a forager waits more than about 50 s to unload: it recruits a
different caste and suppresses recruitment of more foragers. A load signal
that reallocates labour across castes, triggered by a locally measured
queueing delay. The stop signal (Seeley et al. 2012) is cross-inhibition
targeted at dancers for other sites, already implemented here as !object.
The tandem-run to carrying switch at quorum (Pratt et al. 2002; Pratt 2005)
moves the colony from a mode that preserves independent judgement to one that
does not, and maps onto Deliberate → Commit. Fold: an intensity must be
earned from cites, never parsed from prose, or it is free to inflate.
Teaching and informed leaders. Tandem running is teaching by the strict criteria, at about four times the solo journey time (Franks & Richardson 2006): an expert who transfers knowledge is slower than one who acts. Couzin, Krause, Franks & Levin (2005): a small informed minority steers a group whose naive members cannot tell who is informed, and the proportion needed shrinks with group size. Fold: a directory does not need to be broadcast to work; it only needs to bias the argmax.
Transactive memory. Wegner (1986; 1995): a group's memory is the directory, not the contents, with directory updating, information allocation and retrieval coordination. Lewis (2003) validates specialisation, credibility and coordination; credibility is what lets a retriever trust an owner instead of re-deriving. Hollingshead (1998; 2000): teams rely on diffuse cues (role label) early and specific cues (observed experience) as they gain shared history; the effect of diffuse cues falls with experience. A host-supplied role string is a diffuse cue; a folded record of grounded deposits is a specific one.
Hidden profiles. Stasser & Titus (1985): groups discuss what everyone knows and fail to surface uniquely held items. Stasser & Stewart (1992): the failure largely disappears under a "demonstrably correct answer" framing. Stewart & Stasser (1995) and Stasser, Stewart & Wittenbaum (1995): public expert role assignment raises unique-item sampling, modestly (about 29% to 34%; Lu, Yuan & McLeod 2012 meta-analysis). Rule: announce my domain; when a question falls in another's announced domain, ask them rather than answer; when it falls in mine, contribute even unasked.
Switching cost. Leighton, Charbonneau & Dornhaus (2017): the interval
between acts is shorter when an individual repeats the same task, in every
active worker group and independently of whether the worker is a specialist.
Division of labour buys the avoidance of switching delay, not better workers.
Fold: a fixed penalty when the topic a member would speak on differs from
its last one; SPEAK_COST's mirror image.
Quorum and pooling. Sumpter & Pratt (2009): quorum responses need k ≥ 2 and actively suppress early social influence below the threshold. Marshall et al. (2019): simple majority is frequently sub-optimal.
| system | who acts next | signal | fan-out | failure mode |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AutoGen 0.2 GroupChat | auto (LLM names next speaker), round-robin, manual, callable |
LLM over full history | sequential | transcript read per turn |
| AutoGen FSM / 0.4 SelectorGroupChat | allowed-transitions graph ∩ LLM; selector_func, candidate_func |
static graph + LLM | sequential | wrong edges deadlock silently |
| LangGraph supervisor, hierarchical teams | supervisor node emits Command(goto) |
LLM, static topology | sequential | supervisor is a context bottleneck |
| CrewAI hierarchical | manager calls "delegate to coworker" by role string |
LLM matching task to role | sequential | delegation loops |
| OpenAI Swarm / Agents SDK | handoff as a tool; control fully transferred | LLM tool choice | sequential | no return edge |
| MetaGPT | publish/subscribe on cause_by |
static subscriptions | broadcast | bounded only by disjoint watch sets |
| CAMEL, ChatDev | fixed dyad; waterfall SOP | topology | sequential | role flipping, loops |
| Anthropic research system (2025) | orchestrator spawns 3–5 workers | LLM decomposition | parallel | ~15× tokens; usage explains ~80% of variance |
| Claude Code subagents and skills | task matched against description |
LLM over a short index | either | the description is the router; misroutes are silent |
Learned and scored selection: DyLAN (Liu et al. 2023) computes an Agent Importance Score by backward aggregation of peer ratings and keeps the top-k, the closest published analogue to a citation-folded directory. AgentVerse recruits generated expert personas (unfalsifiable). GPTSwarm (Zhuge et al. 2024) learns who talks to whom. MasRouter (2025) jointly picks collaboration mode, roles and per-agent model, with up to 52% overhead reduction. AgentRouter (2025) routes over a knowledge graph. Bala & Shah (2026) frame routing as set-valued prediction and find supervised routers beat zero-shot LLM routing: "ask a model who should answer" is the baseline, not the ceiling. Mixture-of-Agents (Wang et al. 2024) improves even from worse auxiliary answers and is rarely reported against a matched-budget control.
Cost-aware cascades: FrugalGPT (cheapest first, escalate on low scorer confidence, a quorum on a confidence signal), RouteLLM, Hybrid LLM, RouterBench, IRT-Router. Predictive routing decides from the query; cascade routing needs an abstention signal the answerer emits. KnowNo (Ren et al. 2023) is the principled abstention trigger: ask for help when the conformal prediction set is not a singleton. Expert personas (ExpertPrompting, multi-expert prompting) are diffuse cues and can trade accuracy for alignment.
- The compute confound. Token usage explains most multi-agent gains;
matched-budget self-consistency is the control and this repository's
votearm stays as it is. - MAST (Cemri et al. 2025): 14 failure modes from 1600+ traces across seven frameworks, 41% to 87% failure rates. Step repetition (15.7%), unawareness of termination (12.4%) and disobeying the task (11.8%) dominate; role violation is 1.5%. An expertise layer buys little against that distribution and adds surface for the first three.
- Convergence. Conformity rises with a peer's apparent capability, and a directory amplifies apparent capability by construction.
- Directory circularity. DyLAN's score, Claude Code's description match and any transcript-folded affinity share a defect: who spoke becomes who is thought to know. That is an information cascade with a routing table.
- Every added verb here has lost.
!refutecost 7 points and dropped below the vote control;require_evidentialcost 26. A new verb is a new way to spend turns on meta-conversation.
- A folded transactive-memory directory feeding
BidReason::Knows. Wegner + Lewis + DyLAN. Specialisation = decayed grounded deposits on a topic; credibility = decayed citations by others minus objections; host affinity as a prior. No new verb. Benchmark: a hidden profile with heterogeneous expertise; the acceptance criterion is already written in the shared-medium spec. Might lose because: uniform-expertise benches give it nothing to route on (expected gain there is zero); circularity; mutual citation is gameable; a 6–7 turn episode is short for any estimator. - Render the directory into the room. Hutchins's speed bugs; Stasser's
expert-role assignment. Host pastes
Directory::lines()into the prompt. Small honest effect; also renders the prior. !deferas abstention and cost-aware escalation. Tremble dance; FrugalGPT. Not a wasted turn but one bit of high-value directory evidence. Might lose because a turn costs 100% of a turn where a cheap model call costs about 1% of an expensive one; miscalibrated deferral is the dominant failure of escalation systems; defer chains are a step-repetition surface.- Threshold reinforcement plus a switching cost. No wire change. Hard to justify at 6.75 turns per episode without cross-episode persistence the crate deliberately does not own.
- Expertise-directed referral. Couzin; LangGraph supervisor. The directory is folded from this conversation, so another desk's members weigh zero unless a host supplies cross-desk priors, and a returned answer is an unrebuttable cascade seed.
!offerwith an earned quality signal. Waggle dance. Pure meta; the repository's record on added verbs argues against it.
The mechanism must be able to lose and the loss must be published; the bench
arm and scenario family land before the mechanism and are fixed before tuning;
vote gets the same turn budget and results are reported at equal turns and as
turns-to-decision at equal accuracy; a mechanism that helps hidden profiles but
costs more than two points on the uniform 5000-room bench ships off by default;
directory circularity is reported as the rank correlation between directory
weight and speech share; the predicted result on the uniform bench is zero.
- Bonabeau, Theraulaz & Deneubourg, Proc. R. Soc. B 263:1565 (1996); Bull. Math. Biol. 60:753 (1998).
- Theraulaz, Bonabeau & Deneubourg, Proc. R. Soc. B 265:327 (1998).
- Robinson, Annu. Rev. Entomol. 37:637 (1992). Tofts & Franks, TREE 7:346 (1992); Franks & Tofts, Anim. Behav. 48:470 (1994). Tripet & Nonacs, Ethology 110:863 (2004).
- Gordon, Nature 380:121 (1996); Gordon & Mehdiabadi, Behav. Ecol. Sociobiol. 45:370 (1999); Greene & Gordon, Behav. Ecol. 18:451 (2007); Prabhakar, Dektar & Gordon, PLoS Comput. Biol. (2012).
- Seeley, Behav. Ecol. Sociobiol. 31:375 (1992); Seeley & Visscher, Behav. Ecol. Sociobiol. 54:511 (2003); J. Exp. Biol. 211:3691 (2008); Seeley et al., Science 335:108 (2012).
- Pratt, Mallon, Sumpter & Franks, Behav. Ecol. Sociobiol. 52:117 (2002); Pratt, Behav. Ecol. 16:488 (2005).
- Franks & Richardson, Nature 439:153 (2006). Couzin, Krause, Franks & Levin, Nature 433:513 (2005).
- Leighton, Charbonneau & Dornhaus, Behav. Ecol. 28:319 (2017).
- Sumpter & Pratt, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 364:743 (2009); Marshall et al., eLife 8:e40368 (2019); Kao & Couzin, Proc. R. Soc. B 281:20133305 (2014).
- Czaczkes, Grüter & Ratnieks, Annu. Rev. Entomol. 60:581 (2015). Stützle & Hoos, FGCS 16:889 (2000).
- Wegner, in Mullen & Goethals, Theories of Group Behavior (1986); Social Cognition 13:319 (1995). Lewis, J. Appl. Psychol. 88:587 (2003). Hollingshead, Group Processes & Intergroup Relations 3:257 (2000).
- Stasser & Titus, JPSP 48:1467 (1985); Stasser & Stewart, JPSP 63:426 (1992); Stewart & Stasser, JPSP 69:619 (1995); Stasser, Stewart & Wittenbaum, JESP 31:244 (1995); Lu, Yuan & McLeod, PSPR (2012).
- Hutchins, Cognition in the Wild (1995).
- AutoGen speaker selection: microsoft.github.io/autogen (0.2 docs, FSM GroupChat blog, 2024). LangGraph supervisor: github.com/langchain-ai/langgraph-supervisor-py. CrewAI hierarchical process: docs.crewai.com. OpenAI Swarm: github.com/openai/swarm. MetaGPT communication docs. CAMEL arXiv:2303.17760; ChatDev arXiv:2307.07924.
- Anthropic, "How we built our multi-agent research system" (2025). Claude Code subagents documentation.
- Wang et al., Mixture-of-Agents, arXiv:2406.04692. Liu et al., DyLAN, arXiv:2310.02170. Chen et al., AgentVerse, arXiv:2308.10848. Zhuge et al., GPTSwarm, ICML 2024. MasRouter arXiv:2502.11133. AgentRouter arXiv:2510.05445. Bala & Shah arXiv:2606.28925 (2026). Ishibashi & Nishimura, Self-Organized Agents, arXiv:2404.02183.
- Chen, Zaharia & Zou, FrugalGPT, arXiv:2305.05176. Ong et al., RouteLLM, arXiv:2406.18665. Ding et al., Hybrid LLM, arXiv:2404.14618. Hu et al., RouterBench, arXiv:2403.12031. RouterEval arXiv:2503.10657.
- Xu et al., ExpertPrompting, arXiv:2305.14688. Multi-expert prompting, arXiv:2411.00492. Ren et al., KnowNo, arXiv:2307.01928.
- Cemri et al., "Why Do Multi-Agent LLM Systems Fail?", arXiv:2503.13657. "Multi-LLM-Agents Debate: Performance, Efficiency, and Scaling Challenges", ICLR 2025 blogpost track.
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