Trust calibration tooling

[danielbentes]

Context

The trust model defines authority weights, confidence scores, and temporal decay, but there is no tooling to measure whether these parameters are well-calibrated against actual outcomes. Miscalibrated trust weights can lead to over- or under-reliance on specific evidence sources. (Roadmap Section 3.3)

Objective

Provide tooling to measure actual vs. predicted trust, detect miscalibrated trust weights, and suggest adjustments.

Tasks

• Implement calibration reports comparing trust scores against ground truth outcomes
• Implement temporal decay analysis (assess appropriateness of decay rates per domain)
• Implement authority weight tuning (suggest adjustments based on historical accuracy)
• Build calibration dashboard for visual inspection of trust distributions
• Create domain-specific calibration benchmarks for each profile

Acceptance Criteria

• Calibration reports quantify the gap between predicted trust and actual outcomes
• Temporal decay analysis identifies domains where decay rates are too aggressive or too lenient
• Authority weight tuning produces actionable suggestions based on historical data
• Each domain profile has baseline calibration benchmarks

Related

• Trust model: schemas/capability_ontology.yaml (ground capability)
• Domain profiles: schemas/profiles/*.yaml
• Profile schema: schemas/profiles/profile_schema.yaml