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"// Affichage du factor graph du modele de diagnostic medical\n",
"// Le graphe montre la structure : Prior(malade) -> Facteur conditionnel -> Observation(test)\n",
- "display(HTML(FactorGraphHelper.GetLatestFactorGraphHtml()));"
+ "FactorGraphHelper.GetLatestFactorGraphHtml().DisplayAs(\"text/html\");"
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- "Exercice 3 a completer : calibration de l'utilite pour decision d'assurance\r\n"
+ "Exercice 2 a completer : calibration de l'utilite pour decision d'assurance\r\n"
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"source": [
"// Affichage du factor graph du modele de loterie\n",
"// Le graphe montre la structure conditionnelle : gagne (Bernoulli) -> gain (deterministe selon l'etat)\n",
- "display(HTML(FactorGraphHelper.GetLatestFactorGraphHtml()));"
+ "FactorGraphHelper.GetLatestFactorGraphHtml().DisplayAs(\"text/html\");"
]
},
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"source": [
"## Exercice 4 : Equivalent certain et deduction de l'aversion au risque\n",
"\n",
@@ -2562,44 +2677,73 @@
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
- "id": "e5f6g7h8",
- "metadata": {},
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+ "status": "completed"
+ },
+ "tags": []
+ },
"outputs": [
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "=== Exercice 4 : Deduction de l'aversion au risque ===\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "=== Exercice 4 : Deduction de l'aversion au risque ===\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "(A) rho deduit : 0,000 | prime de risque : 0 EUR\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "(A) rho deduit : 0,000 | prime de risque : 0 EUR\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "(B) rho deduit : 0,000 | prime de risque : 0 EUR\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "(B) rho deduit : 0,000 | prime de risque : 0 EUR\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "(C) rho deduit : 0,000 | prime de risque : 0 EUR\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "(C) rho deduit : 0,000 | prime de risque : 0 EUR\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Question : les trois rho sont-ils coherents ?\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Question : les trois rho sont-ils coherents ?\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Indice : une incoherence revele une violation des axiomes VNM (effet de certitude).\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Indice : une incoherence revele une violation des axiomes VNM (effet de certitude).\r\n"
+ ]
}
],
"source": [
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@@ -2695,6 +2839,19 @@
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diff --git a/MyIA.AI.Notebooks/Probas/DecisionTheory/DecInfer/DecInfer-03-Utility-Money.ipynb b/MyIA.AI.Notebooks/Probas/DecisionTheory/DecInfer/DecInfer-03-Utility-Money.ipynb
index c4b734b0bd..c0ad25cb69 100644
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+++ b/MyIA.AI.Notebooks/Probas/DecisionTheory/DecInfer/DecInfer-03-Utility-Money.ipynb
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@@ -124,6 +124,121 @@
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+ "iopub.status.idle": "2026-09-23T07:15:38.195017Z",
+ "shell.execute_reply": "2026-09-23T07:15:38.195017Z"
},
"papermill": {
- "duration": 0.082618,
- "end_time": "2026-06-22T19:19:25.448066",
+ "duration": 0.071339,
+ "end_time": "2026-09-23T07:15:38.195017",
"exception": false,
- "start_time": "2026-06-22T19:19:25.365448",
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:15:38.123678",
"status": "completed"
},
"tags": [],
@@ -1828,7 +1952,16 @@
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"id": "7ecaa6b0",
- "metadata": {},
+ "metadata": {
+ "papermill": {
+ "duration": 0.009356,
+ "end_time": "2026-09-23T07:15:38.214685",
+ "exception": false,
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:15:38.205329",
+ "status": "completed"
+ },
+ "tags": []
+ },
"source": [
"### Lecture : la prime de risque croît avec l'aversion — et avec quoi au juste ?\n",
"\n",
@@ -1841,19 +1974,19 @@
"id": "e73e4fa0",
"metadata": {
"execution": {
- "iopub.execute_input": "2026-06-22T19:19:25.504172Z",
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- "shell.execute_reply": "2026-06-22T19:19:25.591696Z"
+ "iopub.execute_input": "2026-09-23T07:15:38.242368Z",
+ "iopub.status.busy": "2026-09-23T07:15:38.241823Z",
+ "iopub.status.idle": "2026-09-23T07:15:38.309199Z",
+ "shell.execute_reply": "2026-09-23T07:15:38.308670Z"
},
"language_info": {
"name": "polyglot-notebook"
},
"papermill": {
- "duration": 0.104998,
- "end_time": "2026-06-22T19:19:25.592697",
+ "duration": 0.080958,
+ "end_time": "2026-09-23T07:15:38.309199",
"exception": false,
- "start_time": "2026-06-22T19:19:25.487699",
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:15:38.228241",
"status": "completed"
},
"polyglot_notebook": {
@@ -2026,7 +2159,16 @@
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"id": "2785cae3",
- "metadata": {},
+ "metadata": {
+ "papermill": {
+ "duration": 0.018602,
+ "end_time": "2026-09-23T07:15:38.342755",
+ "exception": false,
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:15:38.324153",
+ "status": "completed"
+ },
+ "tags": []
+ },
"source": [
"### Lecture du balayage : une relation quasi linéaire, lue en prime relative\n",
"\n",
@@ -2038,10 +2180,10 @@
"id": "8c206be2",
"metadata": {
"papermill": {
- "duration": 0.013214,
- "end_time": "2026-06-22T19:19:25.620203",
+ "duration": 0.020193,
+ "end_time": "2026-09-23T07:15:38.383668",
"exception": false,
- "start_time": "2026-06-22T19:19:25.606989",
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:15:38.363475",
"status": "completed"
},
"tags": []
@@ -2056,19 +2198,19 @@
"id": "7427199d",
"metadata": {
"execution": {
- "iopub.execute_input": "2026-06-22T19:19:25.648243Z",
- "iopub.status.busy": "2026-06-22T19:19:25.648243Z",
- "iopub.status.idle": "2026-06-22T19:19:25.787830Z",
- "shell.execute_reply": "2026-06-22T19:19:25.786823Z"
+ "iopub.execute_input": "2026-09-23T07:15:38.409445Z",
+ "iopub.status.busy": "2026-09-23T07:15:38.408895Z",
+ "iopub.status.idle": "2026-09-23T07:15:38.524956Z",
+ "shell.execute_reply": "2026-09-23T07:15:38.524956Z"
},
"language_info": {
"name": "polyglot-notebook"
},
"papermill": {
- "duration": 0.155587,
- "end_time": "2026-06-22T19:19:25.787830",
+ "duration": 0.129205,
+ "end_time": "2026-09-23T07:15:38.524956",
"exception": false,
- "start_time": "2026-06-22T19:19:25.632243",
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:15:38.395751",
"status": "completed"
},
"polyglot_notebook": {
@@ -2251,10 +2393,10 @@
"id": "eeb96484",
"metadata": {
"papermill": {
- "duration": 0.015026,
- "end_time": "2026-06-22T19:19:25.818553",
+ "duration": 0.009966,
+ "end_time": "2026-09-23T07:15:38.545020",
"exception": false,
- "start_time": "2026-06-22T19:19:25.803527",
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:15:38.535054",
"status": "completed"
},
"tags": []
@@ -2306,16 +2448,16 @@
"language": "csharp"
},
"execution": {
- "iopub.execute_input": "2026-06-22T19:19:25.852000Z",
- "iopub.status.busy": "2026-06-22T19:19:25.850991Z",
- "iopub.status.idle": "2026-06-22T19:19:25.903616Z",
- "shell.execute_reply": "2026-06-22T19:19:25.903616Z"
+ "iopub.execute_input": "2026-09-23T07:15:38.566384Z",
+ "iopub.status.busy": "2026-09-23T07:15:38.566384Z",
+ "iopub.status.idle": "2026-09-23T07:15:38.596509Z",
+ "shell.execute_reply": "2026-09-23T07:15:38.596509Z"
},
"papermill": {
- "duration": 0.070626,
- "end_time": "2026-06-22T19:19:25.903616",
+ "duration": 0.04155,
+ "end_time": "2026-09-23T07:15:38.596509",
"exception": false,
- "start_time": "2026-06-22T19:19:25.832990",
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:15:38.554959",
"status": "completed"
},
"tags": [],
@@ -2376,10 +2518,10 @@
"id": "9f72c2df",
"metadata": {
"papermill": {
- "duration": 0.014507,
- "end_time": "2026-06-22T19:19:25.932146",
+ "duration": 0.011775,
+ "end_time": "2026-09-23T07:15:38.619877",
"exception": false,
- "start_time": "2026-06-22T19:19:25.917639",
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:15:38.608102",
"status": "completed"
},
"tags": []
@@ -2409,19 +2551,19 @@
"id": "cc766630",
"metadata": {
"execution": {
- "iopub.execute_input": "2026-06-22T19:19:25.960146Z",
- "iopub.status.busy": "2026-06-22T19:19:25.960146Z",
- "iopub.status.idle": "2026-06-22T19:19:26.046919Z",
- "shell.execute_reply": "2026-06-22T19:19:26.046919Z"
+ "iopub.execute_input": "2026-09-23T07:15:38.648079Z",
+ "iopub.status.busy": "2026-09-23T07:15:38.648079Z",
+ "iopub.status.idle": "2026-09-23T07:15:38.704398Z",
+ "shell.execute_reply": "2026-09-23T07:15:38.704398Z"
},
"language_info": {
"name": "polyglot-notebook"
},
"papermill": {
- "duration": 0.101773,
- "end_time": "2026-06-22T19:19:26.046919",
+ "duration": 0.073276,
+ "end_time": "2026-09-23T07:15:38.704398",
"exception": false,
- "start_time": "2026-06-22T19:19:25.945146",
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:15:38.631122",
"status": "completed"
},
"polyglot_notebook": {
@@ -2633,7 +2775,16 @@
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"id": "88c34674",
- "metadata": {},
+ "metadata": {
+ "papermill": {
+ "duration": 0.013012,
+ "end_time": "2026-09-23T07:15:38.732552",
+ "exception": false,
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:15:38.719540",
+ "status": "completed"
+ },
+ "tags": []
+ },
"source": [
"### Lecture : le basculement C → B, et une précaution de lecture du tableau\n",
"\n",
@@ -2647,10 +2798,10 @@
"id": "1ec36415",
"metadata": {
"papermill": {
- "duration": 0.015286,
- "end_time": "2026-06-22T19:19:26.079750",
+ "duration": 0.013619,
+ "end_time": "2026-09-23T07:15:38.757429",
"exception": false,
- "start_time": "2026-06-22T19:19:26.064464",
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:15:38.743810",
"status": "completed"
},
"tags": []
@@ -2678,16 +2829,16 @@
"language": "csharp"
},
"execution": {
- "iopub.execute_input": "2026-06-22T19:19:26.113834Z",
- "iopub.status.busy": "2026-06-22T19:19:26.113326Z",
- "iopub.status.idle": "2026-06-22T19:19:26.232687Z",
- "shell.execute_reply": "2026-06-22T19:19:26.232687Z"
+ "iopub.execute_input": "2026-09-23T07:15:38.789308Z",
+ "iopub.status.busy": "2026-09-23T07:15:38.788783Z",
+ "iopub.status.idle": "2026-09-23T07:15:38.883432Z",
+ "shell.execute_reply": "2026-09-23T07:15:38.883432Z"
},
"papermill": {
- "duration": 0.13759,
- "end_time": "2026-06-22T19:19:26.232687",
+ "duration": 0.112788,
+ "end_time": "2026-09-23T07:15:38.883432",
"exception": false,
- "start_time": "2026-06-22T19:19:26.095097",
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:15:38.770644",
"status": "completed"
},
"tags": [],
@@ -2790,10 +2941,10 @@
"id": "7cbe726d",
"metadata": {
"papermill": {
- "duration": 0.015346,
- "end_time": "2026-06-22T19:19:26.265054",
+ "duration": 0.011035,
+ "end_time": "2026-09-23T07:15:38.906060",
"exception": false,
- "start_time": "2026-06-22T19:19:26.249708",
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:15:38.895025",
"status": "completed"
},
"tags": []
@@ -2811,16 +2962,16 @@
"language": "csharp"
},
"execution": {
- "iopub.execute_input": "2026-06-22T19:19:26.297172Z",
- "iopub.status.busy": "2026-06-22T19:19:26.296663Z",
- "iopub.status.idle": "2026-06-22T19:19:26.369948Z",
- "shell.execute_reply": "2026-06-22T19:19:26.369439Z"
+ "iopub.execute_input": "2026-09-23T07:15:38.935040Z",
+ "iopub.status.busy": "2026-09-23T07:15:38.934481Z",
+ "iopub.status.idle": "2026-09-23T07:15:39.005411Z",
+ "shell.execute_reply": "2026-09-23T07:15:39.005411Z"
},
"papermill": {
- "duration": 0.089461,
- "end_time": "2026-06-22T19:19:26.369948",
+ "duration": 0.086456,
+ "end_time": "2026-09-23T07:15:39.005411",
"exception": false,
- "start_time": "2026-06-22T19:19:26.280487",
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:15:38.918955",
"status": "completed"
},
"tags": [],
@@ -2937,10 +3088,10 @@
"id": "787f7a76",
"metadata": {
"papermill": {
- "duration": 0.017311,
- "end_time": "2026-06-22T19:19:26.407375",
+ "duration": 0.010715,
+ "end_time": "2026-09-23T07:15:39.029967",
"exception": false,
- "start_time": "2026-06-22T19:19:26.390064",
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:15:39.019252",
"status": "completed"
},
"tags": []
@@ -2971,10 +3122,10 @@
"id": "03385944",
"metadata": {
"papermill": {
- "duration": 0.015288,
- "end_time": "2026-06-22T19:19:26.437691",
+ "duration": 0.012765,
+ "end_time": "2026-09-23T07:15:39.053655",
"exception": false,
- "start_time": "2026-06-22T19:19:26.422403",
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:15:39.040890",
"status": "completed"
},
"tags": []
@@ -3004,16 +3155,16 @@
"language": "csharp"
},
"execution": {
- "iopub.execute_input": "2026-06-22T19:19:26.470951Z",
- "iopub.status.busy": "2026-06-22T19:19:26.469948Z",
- "iopub.status.idle": "2026-06-22T19:19:26.524381Z",
- "shell.execute_reply": "2026-06-22T19:19:26.523875Z"
+ "iopub.execute_input": "2026-09-23T07:15:39.083975Z",
+ "iopub.status.busy": "2026-09-23T07:15:39.083975Z",
+ "iopub.status.idle": "2026-09-23T07:15:39.130762Z",
+ "shell.execute_reply": "2026-09-23T07:15:39.130445Z"
},
"papermill": {
- "duration": 0.070796,
- "end_time": "2026-06-22T19:19:26.524381",
+ "duration": 0.063931,
+ "end_time": "2026-09-23T07:15:39.130762",
"exception": false,
- "start_time": "2026-06-22T19:19:26.453585",
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:15:39.066831",
"status": "completed"
},
"tags": [],
@@ -3105,7 +3256,16 @@
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"id": "4f3dfc15",
- "metadata": {},
+ "metadata": {
+ "papermill": {
+ "duration": 0.023624,
+ "end_time": "2026-09-23T07:15:39.174322",
+ "exception": false,
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:15:39.150698",
+ "status": "completed"
+ },
+ "tags": []
+ },
"source": [
"### Lecture : votre ρ révélé par un seul prix d'indifférence\n",
"\n",
@@ -3117,10 +3277,10 @@
"id": "84438637",
"metadata": {
"papermill": {
- "duration": 0.016999,
- "end_time": "2026-06-22T19:19:26.556983",
+ "duration": 0.020617,
+ "end_time": "2026-09-23T07:15:39.219343",
"exception": false,
- "start_time": "2026-06-22T19:19:26.539984",
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:15:39.198726",
"status": "completed"
},
"tags": []
@@ -3147,19 +3307,19 @@
"id": "6e12c4ef",
"metadata": {
"execution": {
- "iopub.execute_input": "2026-06-22T19:19:26.590992Z",
- "iopub.status.busy": "2026-06-22T19:19:26.589985Z",
- "iopub.status.idle": "2026-06-22T19:19:28.212422Z",
- "shell.execute_reply": "2026-06-22T19:19:28.211430Z"
+ "iopub.execute_input": "2026-09-23T07:15:39.255791Z",
+ "iopub.status.busy": "2026-09-23T07:15:39.255791Z",
+ "iopub.status.idle": "2026-09-23T07:15:40.987355Z",
+ "shell.execute_reply": "2026-09-23T07:15:40.987355Z"
},
"language_info": {
"name": "polyglot-notebook"
},
"papermill": {
- "duration": 1.639197,
- "end_time": "2026-06-22T19:19:28.212422",
+ "duration": 1.749349,
+ "end_time": "2026-09-23T07:15:40.987355",
"exception": false,
- "start_time": "2026-06-22T19:19:26.573225",
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:15:39.238006",
"status": "completed"
},
"polyglot_notebook": {
@@ -3337,10 +3497,10 @@
"id": "da38e359",
"metadata": {
"papermill": {
- "duration": 0.021415,
- "end_time": "2026-06-22T19:19:28.257344",
+ "duration": 0.02006,
+ "end_time": "2026-09-23T07:15:41.036891",
"exception": false,
- "start_time": "2026-06-22T19:19:28.235929",
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:15:41.016831",
"status": "completed"
},
"tags": []
@@ -3381,19 +3541,19 @@
"id": "536fb4f3",
"metadata": {
"execution": {
- "iopub.execute_input": "2026-06-22T19:19:28.294362Z",
- "iopub.status.busy": "2026-06-22T19:19:28.294362Z",
- "iopub.status.idle": "2026-06-22T19:19:28.905638Z",
- "shell.execute_reply": "2026-06-22T19:19:28.905638Z"
+ "iopub.execute_input": "2026-09-23T07:15:41.072171Z",
+ "iopub.status.busy": "2026-09-23T07:15:41.072171Z",
+ "iopub.status.idle": "2026-09-23T07:15:42.255166Z",
+ "shell.execute_reply": "2026-09-23T07:15:42.254607Z"
},
"language_info": {
"name": "polyglot-notebook"
},
"papermill": {
- "duration": 0.629253,
- "end_time": "2026-06-22T19:19:28.905638",
+ "duration": 1.200939,
+ "end_time": "2026-09-23T07:15:42.255166",
"exception": false,
- "start_time": "2026-06-22T19:19:28.276385",
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:15:41.054227",
"status": "completed"
},
"polyglot_notebook": {
@@ -3422,14 +3582,14 @@
{
"data": {
"text/html": [
- "\r\n",
- "
\r\n",
- "
Model_06_22_26_21_19_28_38.svg
\r\n",
- "
\r\n",
+ "\n",
+ "
\n",
+ "
Model_09_23_26_09_15_41_16.svg
\n",
+ "
\n",
" \r\n",
"\r\n",
- "\r\n",
"\r\n",
"\r\n",
- "\r\n",
- "
\r\n",
+ "\n",
+ "
\n",
"
"
]
},
@@ -3530,15 +3690,6 @@
"text": [
" - Le facteur Bernoulli connecte probRisque a chaque observation\r\n"
]
- },
- {
- "name": "stderr",
- "output_type": "stream",
- "text": [
- "\r\n",
- "warning CS1701: En supposant que la référence d'assembly 'Microsoft.AspNetCore.Html.Abstractions, Version=2.2.0.0, Culture=neutral, PublicKeyToken=adb9793829ddae60' utilisée par 'Microsoft.DotNet.Interactive' correspond à l'identité 'Microsoft.AspNetCore.Html.Abstractions, Version=9.0.0.0, Culture=neutral, PublicKeyToken=adb9793829ddae60' de 'Microsoft.AspNetCore.Html.Abstractions', il se peut que vous deviez fournir une stratégie runtime\r\n",
- "\r\n"
- ]
}
],
"source": [
@@ -3560,7 +3711,7 @@
"try\n",
"{\n",
" var _ = engineFG.Infer
(probRisqueFG);\n",
- " display(HTML(FactorGraphHelper.GetLatestFactorGraphHtml(700)));\n",
+ " FactorGraphHelper.GetLatestFactorGraphHtml(700).DisplayAs(\"text/html\");\n",
" \n",
" Console.WriteLine(\"Le factor graph montre :\");\n",
" Console.WriteLine(\" - probRisque : variable latente Beta (cercle)\");\n",
@@ -3579,10 +3730,10 @@
"id": "c5cfce09",
"metadata": {
"papermill": {
- "duration": 0.024405,
- "end_time": "2026-06-22T19:19:28.942054",
+ "duration": 0.015025,
+ "end_time": "2026-09-23T07:15:42.305230",
"exception": false,
- "start_time": "2026-06-22T19:19:28.917649",
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:15:42.290205",
"status": "completed"
},
"tags": []
@@ -3597,19 +3748,19 @@
"id": "2825015b",
"metadata": {
"execution": {
- "iopub.execute_input": "2026-06-22T19:19:28.979053Z",
- "iopub.status.busy": "2026-06-22T19:19:28.979053Z",
- "iopub.status.idle": "2026-06-22T19:19:29.047340Z",
- "shell.execute_reply": "2026-06-22T19:19:29.047340Z"
+ "iopub.execute_input": "2026-09-23T07:15:42.335054Z",
+ "iopub.status.busy": "2026-09-23T07:15:42.335054Z",
+ "iopub.status.idle": "2026-09-23T07:15:42.384819Z",
+ "shell.execute_reply": "2026-09-23T07:15:42.384819Z"
},
"language_info": {
"name": "polyglot-notebook"
},
"papermill": {
- "duration": 0.087295,
- "end_time": "2026-06-22T19:19:29.047340",
+ "duration": 0.06367,
+ "end_time": "2026-09-23T07:15:42.384819",
"exception": false,
- "start_time": "2026-06-22T19:19:28.960045",
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:15:42.321149",
"status": "completed"
},
"polyglot_notebook": {
@@ -3809,7 +3960,16 @@
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"id": "a3d1ec02",
- "metadata": {},
+ "metadata": {
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"### Lecture : la conjugaison Beta-Bernoulli rend le posterior lisible sans calcul\n",
"\n",
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@@ -4051,6 +4211,20 @@
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+ "notes": "Local execution via Infer.NET (Microsoft.Research.MachineLearning) probabilistic programming. Deterministic inference engines (Expectation Propagation / Variational Message Passing) converge to fixed points given the same model, data and seed. Requires .NET Interactive kernel + Infer.NET package installed. Execution is deterministic.",
+ "reduced_pedagogical": null,
+ "reproducibility": "HIGH",
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@@ -4065,14 +4239,14 @@
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@@ -4086,22 +4260,8 @@
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diff --git a/MyIA.AI.Notebooks/Probas/DecisionTheory/DecInfer/DecInfer-04-Multi-Attribute.ipynb b/MyIA.AI.Notebooks/Probas/DecisionTheory/DecInfer/DecInfer-04-Multi-Attribute.ipynb
index 40b4a66890..4829365205 100644
--- a/MyIA.AI.Notebooks/Probas/DecisionTheory/DecInfer/DecInfer-04-Multi-Attribute.ipynb
+++ b/MyIA.AI.Notebooks/Probas/DecisionTheory/DecInfer/DecInfer-04-Multi-Attribute.ipynb
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@@ -83,16 +83,16 @@
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@@ -102,23 +102,135 @@
},
"outputs": [
{
- "output_type": "display_data",
"data": {
- "text/html": ""
+ "text/html": [
+ "\r\n",
+ "\r\n",
+ "
\r\n",
+ " The below script needs to be able to find the current output cell; this is an easy method to get it.\r\n",
+ "
\r\n",
+ " \r\n",
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},
- "metadata": {}
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{
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"data": {
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- Microsoft.ML.Probabilistic.Compiler
"
+ "text/html": [
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- Microsoft.ML.Probabilistic.Compiler, 0.4.2504.701
"
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},
- "metadata": {}
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},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Infer.NET charge !\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
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+ "Infer.NET charge !\r\n"
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@@ -139,10 +251,10 @@
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@@ -182,14 +294,18 @@
},
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{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "FactorGraphHelper charge !\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "FactorGraphHelper charge !\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Graphviz disponible : True\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
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@@ -255,39 +371,54 @@
},
"outputs": [
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Options disponibles :\n\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Options disponibles :\n",
+ "\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Nom | Prix | Securite | Conso | Confort\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Nom | Prix | Securite | Conso | Confort\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "---------------|---------|----------|---------|--------\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "---------------|---------|----------|---------|--------\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Economique A | 15 000 | 3 | 5,0 | 6\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Economique A | 15 000 | 3 | 5,0 | 6\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Familiale B | 28 000 | 5 | 6,5 | 8\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Familiale B | 28 000 | 5 | 6,5 | 8\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Sport C | 45 000 | 4 | 9,0 | 7\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Sport C | 45 000 | 4 | 9,0 | 7\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Hybride D | 32 000 | 5 | 4,0 | 8\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Hybride D | 32 000 | 5 | 4,0 | 8\r\n"
+ ]
}
],
"source": [
@@ -324,10 +455,10 @@
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@@ -383,10 +514,10 @@
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@@ -439,16 +570,16 @@
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@@ -458,69 +589,98 @@
},
"outputs": [
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Test d'independance : Prix vs Securite\n\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Test d'independance : Prix vs Securite\n",
+ "\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Question : Preferez-vous A ou B ?\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Question : Preferez-vous A ou B ?\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Contexte 1 (Securite = 3 etoiles) :\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Contexte 1 (Securite = 3 etoiles) :\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": " A : Prix = 15000 EUR\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ " A : Prix = 15000 EUR\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": " B : Prix = 20000 EUR\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ " B : Prix = 20000 EUR\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": " => Vous preferez probablement A (moins cher)\n\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ " => Vous preferez probablement A (moins cher)\n",
+ "\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Contexte 2 (Securite = 5 etoiles) :\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Contexte 2 (Securite = 5 etoiles) :\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": " A : Prix = 15000 EUR\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ " A : Prix = 15000 EUR\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": " B : Prix = 20000 EUR\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ " B : Prix = 20000 EUR\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": " => Preferez-vous toujours A ?\n\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ " => Preferez-vous toujours A ?\n",
+ "\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Si votre reponse est la meme dans les deux contextes,\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Si votre reponse est la meme dans les deux contextes,\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "alors Prix et Securite sont preferentiellement independants.\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "alors Prix et Securite sont preferentiellement independants.\r\n"
+ ]
}
],
"source": [
@@ -551,10 +711,10 @@
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+ "end_time": "2026-09-23T07:20:02.117047",
"exception": false,
- "start_time": "2026-07-31T19:55:02.805285",
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:20:02.078097",
"status": "completed"
},
"tags": []
@@ -585,10 +745,10 @@
"id": "e43bdd61",
"metadata": {
"papermill": {
- "duration": 0.007789,
- "end_time": "2026-07-31T19:55:02.827155",
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+ "end_time": "2026-09-23T07:20:02.181702",
"exception": false,
- "start_time": "2026-07-31T19:55:02.819366",
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:20:02.161378",
"status": "completed"
},
"tags": []
@@ -606,16 +766,16 @@
"language": "csharp"
},
"execution": {
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- "shell.execute_reply": "2026-07-31T19:55:02.966256Z"
+ "iopub.execute_input": "2026-09-23T07:20:02.218093Z",
+ "iopub.status.busy": "2026-09-23T07:20:02.217553Z",
+ "iopub.status.idle": "2026-09-23T07:20:02.410306Z",
+ "shell.execute_reply": "2026-09-23T07:20:02.409306Z"
},
"papermill": {
- "duration": 0.132886,
- "end_time": "2026-07-31T19:55:02.966539",
+ "duration": 0.210515,
+ "end_time": "2026-09-23T07:20:02.410306",
"exception": false,
- "start_time": "2026-07-31T19:55:02.833653",
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:20:02.199791",
"status": "completed"
},
"tags": [],
@@ -625,44 +785,62 @@
},
"outputs": [
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Poids : Prix=35 %, Securite=30 %, Conso=20 %, Confort=15 %\n\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Poids : Prix=35 %, Securite=30 %, Conso=20 %, Confort=15 %\n",
+ "\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Voiture | v_prix | v_sec | v_conso | v_conf | V_total\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Voiture | v_prix | v_sec | v_conso | v_conf | V_total\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "---------------|--------|--------|---------|--------|--------\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "---------------|--------|--------|---------|--------|--------\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Economique A | 1,000 | 0,500 | 0,833 | 0,556 | 0,750\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Economique A | 1,000 | 0,500 | 0,833 | 0,556 | 0,750\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Familiale B | 0,567 | 1,000 | 0,583 | 0,778 | 0,732\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Familiale B | 0,567 | 1,000 | 0,583 | 0,778 | 0,732\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Sport C | 0,000 | 0,750 | 0,167 | 0,667 | 0,358\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Sport C | 0,000 | 0,750 | 0,167 | 0,667 | 0,358\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Hybride D | 0,433 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 0,778 | 0,768\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Hybride D | 0,433 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 0,778 | 0,768\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "\n=> Meilleur choix : Hybride D\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "\n",
+ "=> Meilleur choix : Hybride D\r\n"
+ ]
}
],
"source": [
@@ -732,7 +910,16 @@
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"id": "5d8603aa",
- "metadata": {},
+ "metadata": {
+ "papermill": {
+ "duration": 0.014072,
+ "end_time": "2026-09-23T07:20:02.441845",
+ "exception": false,
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:20:02.427773",
+ "status": "completed"
+ },
+ "tags": []
+ },
"source": [
"### Lecture : pourquoi l'Hybride D gagne — et pourquoi la Sport C s'effondre\n",
"\n",
@@ -745,19 +932,19 @@
"id": "dd5cf5c4",
"metadata": {
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- "shell.execute_reply": "2026-07-31T19:55:03.059568Z"
+ "iopub.execute_input": "2026-09-23T07:20:02.476644Z",
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+ "shell.execute_reply": "2026-09-23T07:20:02.607021Z"
},
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"name": "polyglot-notebook"
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- "duration": 0.075886,
- "end_time": "2026-07-31T19:55:03.059963",
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+ "end_time": "2026-09-23T07:20:02.607021",
"exception": false,
- "start_time": "2026-07-31T19:55:02.984077",
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:20:02.458254",
"status": "completed"
},
"polyglot_notebook": {
@@ -770,69 +957,95 @@
},
"outputs": [
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Decomposition de la valeur multi-attributs :\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Decomposition de la valeur multi-attributs :\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Voiture | Prix | Securite | Conso | Confort | Contributions\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Voiture | Prix | Securite | Conso | Confort | Contributions\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": " | (w=35%) | (w=30%) | (w=20%) | (w=15%) | ponderees\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ " | (w=35%) | (w=30%) | (w=20%) | (w=15%) | ponderees\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "---------------|---------|----------|---------|---------|---------------\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "---------------|---------|----------|---------|---------|---------------\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Economique A | 0,350 | 0,150 | 0,167 | 0,083 | V=0,750\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Economique A | 0,350 | 0,150 | 0,167 | 0,083 | V=0,750\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Familiale B | 0,198 | 0,300 | 0,117 | 0,117 | V=0,732\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Familiale B | 0,198 | 0,300 | 0,117 | 0,117 | V=0,732\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Sport C | 0,000 | 0,225 | 0,033 | 0,100 | V=0,358\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Sport C | 0,000 | 0,225 | 0,033 | 0,100 | V=0,358\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Hybride D | 0,152 | 0,300 | 0,200 | 0,117 | V=0,768\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Hybride D | 0,152 | 0,300 | 0,200 | 0,117 | V=0,768\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Interpretation :\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Interpretation :\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": " - Chaque colonne = contribution ponderee de l'attribut (wi * vi)\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ " - Chaque colonne = contribution ponderee de l'attribut (wi * vi)\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": " - V total = somme des contributions\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ " - V total = somme des contributions\r\n"
+ ]
}
],
"source": [
@@ -869,7 +1082,16 @@
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"id": "e9ee4a85",
- "metadata": {},
+ "metadata": {
+ "papermill": {
+ "duration": 0.01762,
+ "end_time": "2026-09-23T07:20:02.642981",
+ "exception": false,
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:20:02.625361",
+ "status": "completed"
+ },
+ "tags": []
+ },
"source": [
"### Lecture du budget de valeur : chaque ligne est un bilan de contributions\n",
"\n",
@@ -881,10 +1103,10 @@
"id": "8c954d69",
"metadata": {
"papermill": {
- "duration": 0.006392,
- "end_time": "2026-07-31T19:55:03.072156",
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- "start_time": "2026-07-31T19:55:03.065764",
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:20:02.661559",
"status": "completed"
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"tags": []
@@ -930,19 +1152,19 @@
"id": "fcc5d83c",
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- "iopub.status.idle": "2026-07-31T19:55:03.181141Z",
- "shell.execute_reply": "2026-07-31T19:55:03.180848Z"
+ "iopub.execute_input": "2026-09-23T07:20:02.714663Z",
+ "iopub.status.busy": "2026-09-23T07:20:02.713652Z",
+ "iopub.status.idle": "2026-09-23T07:20:02.873091Z",
+ "shell.execute_reply": "2026-09-23T07:20:02.872063Z"
},
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"name": "polyglot-notebook"
},
"papermill": {
- "duration": 0.102333,
- "end_time": "2026-07-31T19:55:03.181273",
+ "duration": 0.180898,
+ "end_time": "2026-09-23T07:20:02.873091",
"exception": false,
- "start_time": "2026-07-31T19:55:03.078940",
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:20:02.692193",
"status": "completed"
},
"polyglot_notebook": {
@@ -955,84 +1177,120 @@
},
"outputs": [
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Situation de depart (pire option) :\n\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Situation de depart (pire option) :\n",
+ "\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": " Prix : 45000 EUR (maximum)\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ " Prix : 45000 EUR (maximum)\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": " Securite : 1 etoile (minimum)\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ " Securite : 1 etoile (minimum)\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": " Consommation : 10 L/100km (maximum)\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ " Consommation : 10 L/100km (maximum)\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": " Confort : 1/10 (minimum)\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ " Confort : 1/10 (minimum)\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Classez les swings suivants par ordre de preference :\n\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Classez les swings suivants par ordre de preference :\n",
+ "\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": " A) Prix : 45000 -> 15000 (economie de 30000 EUR)\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ " A) Prix : 45000 -> 15000 (economie de 30000 EUR)\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": " B) Securite : 1 -> 5 etoiles\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ " B) Securite : 1 -> 5 etoiles\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": " C) Consommation : 10 -> 4 L/100km\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ " C) Consommation : 10 -> 4 L/100km\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": " D) Confort : 1 -> 10\n\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ " D) Confort : 1 -> 10\n",
+ "\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Points swing et poids normalises :\n\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Points swing et poids normalises :\n",
+ "\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": " Securite : 100 points => poids = 35,7 %\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ " Securite : 100 points => poids = 35,7 %\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": " Prix : 90 points => poids = 32,1 %\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ " Prix : 90 points => poids = 32,1 %\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": " Consommation : 50 points => poids = 17,9 %\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ " Consommation : 50 points => poids = 17,9 %\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": " Confort : 40 points => poids = 14,3 %\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ " Confort : 40 points => poids = 14,3 %\r\n"
+ ]
}
],
"source": [
@@ -1074,10 +1332,10 @@
"id": "6495d3f3",
"metadata": {
"papermill": {
- "duration": 0.005889,
- "end_time": "2026-07-31T19:55:03.193781",
+ "duration": 0.01714,
+ "end_time": "2026-09-23T07:20:02.909224",
"exception": false,
- "start_time": "2026-07-31T19:55:03.187892",
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:20:02.892084",
"status": "completed"
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"tags": []
@@ -1111,25 +1369,27 @@
"id": "778a8589",
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- "iopub.status.idle": "2026-07-31T19:55:03.296362Z",
- "shell.execute_reply": "2026-07-31T19:55:03.296156Z"
+ "iopub.execute_input": "2026-09-23T07:20:02.944351Z",
+ "iopub.status.busy": "2026-09-23T07:20:02.944351Z",
+ "iopub.status.idle": "2026-09-23T07:20:03.062175Z",
+ "shell.execute_reply": "2026-09-23T07:20:03.061651Z"
},
"papermill": {
- "duration": 0.097034,
- "end_time": "2026-07-31T19:55:03.296430",
+ "duration": 0.134961,
+ "end_time": "2026-09-23T07:20:03.062175",
"exception": false,
- "start_time": "2026-07-31T19:55:03.199396",
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:20:02.927214",
"status": "completed"
},
"tags": []
},
"outputs": [
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Exercice a completer : swing weights et classement des appartements\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Exercice a completer : swing weights et classement des appartements\r\n"
+ ]
}
],
"source": [
@@ -1170,10 +1430,10 @@
"id": "5d65859b",
"metadata": {
"papermill": {
- "duration": 0.007803,
- "end_time": "2026-07-31T19:55:03.310544",
+ "duration": 0.017045,
+ "end_time": "2026-09-23T07:20:03.097559",
"exception": false,
- "start_time": "2026-07-31T19:55:03.302741",
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:20:03.080514",
"status": "completed"
},
"tags": []
@@ -1216,19 +1476,19 @@
"id": "bfe56305",
"metadata": {
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- "iopub.status.busy": "2026-07-31T19:55:03.331431Z",
- "iopub.status.idle": "2026-07-31T19:55:03.480117Z",
- "shell.execute_reply": "2026-07-31T19:55:03.479694Z"
+ "iopub.execute_input": "2026-09-23T07:20:03.149362Z",
+ "iopub.status.busy": "2026-09-23T07:20:03.148361Z",
+ "iopub.status.idle": "2026-09-23T07:20:03.365557Z",
+ "shell.execute_reply": "2026-09-23T07:20:03.364538Z"
},
"language_info": {
"name": "polyglot-notebook"
},
"papermill": {
- "duration": 0.158633,
- "end_time": "2026-07-31T19:55:03.480198",
+ "duration": 0.247187,
+ "end_time": "2026-09-23T07:20:03.365879",
"exception": false,
- "start_time": "2026-07-31T19:55:03.321565",
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:20:03.118692",
"status": "completed"
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"polyglot_notebook": {
@@ -1241,39 +1501,53 @@
},
"outputs": [
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Poids : k1=0.4, k2=0.35, k3=0.35 (sum = 1.1)\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Poids : k1=0.4, k2=0.35, k3=0.35 (sum = 1.1)\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Facteur K calcule : -0,2565\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Facteur K calcule : -0,2565\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Comparaison des formes :\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Comparaison des formes :\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": " u = (1,1,1) : U_mult = 1,000\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ " u = (1,1,1) : U_mult = 1,000\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": " u = (1,0.5,0.5) : U_mult = 0,707\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ " u = (1,0.5,0.5) : U_mult = 0,707\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": " u = (0.5,0.5,0.5) : U_mult = 0,525\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ " u = (0.5,0.5,0.5) : U_mult = 0,525\r\n"
+ ]
}
],
"source": [
@@ -1367,7 +1641,16 @@
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"id": "47c1b8ab",
- "metadata": {},
+ "metadata": {
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"source": [
"### Lecture : K = −0,26 — des attributs substituts, pas complémentaires\n",
"\n",
@@ -1380,19 +1663,19 @@
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@@ -1405,59 +1688,81 @@
},
"outputs": [
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Comparaison forme additive vs multiplicative :\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Comparaison forme additive vs multiplicative :\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Poids : w1=0.5, w2=0.5, K=0,0000\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Poids : w1=0.5, w2=0.5, K=0,0000\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Scenario | U Additif | U Multiplicatif | Diff\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Scenario | U Additif | U Multiplicatif | Diff\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "-------------------------|-----------|-----------------|------\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "-------------------------|-----------|-----------------|------\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Bon X, mauvais Y | 0,550 | 0,550 | 0,000\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Bon X, mauvais Y | 0,550 | 0,550 | 0,000\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Mauvais X, bon Y | 0,550 | 0,550 | 0,000\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Mauvais X, bon Y | 0,550 | 0,550 | 0,000\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Mediocre partout | 0,500 | 0,500 | 0,000\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Mediocre partout | 0,500 | 0,500 | 0,000\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Excellent partout | 0,900 | 0,900 | 0,000\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Excellent partout | 0,900 | 0,900 | 0,000\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "K = 0 : Forme additive (pas d'interaction)\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "K = 0 : Forme additive (pas d'interaction)\r\n"
+ ]
}
],
"source": [
@@ -1503,7 +1808,16 @@
{
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"id": "8848277b",
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+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:20:03.625013",
+ "status": "completed"
+ },
+ "tags": []
+ },
"source": [
"### Lecture : un tableau volontairement dégénéré — K = 0 fait coïncider les deux formes\n",
"\n",
@@ -1515,10 +1829,10 @@
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@@ -1544,10 +1858,10 @@
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@@ -1586,25 +1900,27 @@
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},
"outputs": [
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Exercice a completer : forme multiplicative pour choix d'investissement\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Exercice a completer : forme multiplicative pour choix d'investissement\r\n"
+ ]
}
],
"source": [
@@ -1640,19 +1956,19 @@
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@@ -1665,59 +1981,83 @@
},
"outputs": [
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "=== SMART : Choix de Carriere ===\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "=== SMART : Choix de Carriere ===\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Poids : Salaire=30 %, Equilibre=25 %, \r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Poids : Salaire=30 %, Equilibre=25 %, \r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": " Passion=25 %, Securite=20 %\n\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ " Passion=25 %, Securite=20 %\n",
+ "\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Carriere | v_sal | v_wlb | v_pas | v_sec | V_total\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Carriere | v_sal | v_wlb | v_pas | v_sec | V_total\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "-------------------|-------|-------|-------|-------|--------\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "-------------------|-------|-------|-------|-------|--------\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Startup | 0,400 | 0,222 | 0,889 | 0,333 | 0,464\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Startup | 0,400 | 0,222 | 0,889 | 0,333 | 0,464\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Grande Entreprise | 0,800 | 0,556 | 0,444 | 0,778 | 0,646\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Grande Entreprise | 0,800 | 0,556 | 0,444 | 0,778 | 0,646\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Fonction Publique | 0,120 | 0,778 | 0,333 | 1,000 | 0,514\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Fonction Publique | 0,120 | 0,778 | 0,333 | 1,000 | 0,514\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Freelance | 1,000 | 0,444 | 0,778 | 0,222 | 0,650\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Freelance | 1,000 | 0,444 | 0,778 | 0,222 | 0,650\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Recherche | 0,000 | 0,667 | 1,000 | 0,556 | 0,528\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Recherche | 0,000 | 0,667 | 1,000 | 0,556 | 0,528\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "\n=> Meilleur choix avec ces poids : Freelance (V = 0,650)\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "\n",
+ "=> Meilleur choix avec ces poids : Freelance (V = 0,650)\r\n"
+ ]
}
],
"source": [
@@ -1791,10 +2131,10 @@
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@@ -1809,19 +2149,19 @@
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@@ -1834,59 +2174,81 @@
},
"outputs": [
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Profils de carriere - Comparaison multi-attributs :\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Profils de carriere - Comparaison multi-attributs :\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Carriere | Salaire | Equilibre | Passion | Securite | Score\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Carriere | Salaire | Equilibre | Passion | Securite | Score\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "-------------------|---------|-----------|---------|----------|------\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "-------------------|---------|-----------|---------|----------|------\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Startup | 0,40 | 0,22 | 0,89 | 0,33 | 0,464\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Startup | 0,40 | 0,22 | 0,89 | 0,33 | 0,464\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Grande Entreprise | 0,80 | 0,56 | 0,44 | 0,78 | 0,646\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Grande Entreprise | 0,80 | 0,56 | 0,44 | 0,78 | 0,646\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Fonction Publique | 0,12 | 0,78 | 0,33 | 1,00 | 0,514\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Fonction Publique | 0,12 | 0,78 | 0,33 | 1,00 | 0,514\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Freelance | 1,00 | 0,44 | 0,78 | 0,22 | 0,650\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Freelance | 1,00 | 0,44 | 0,78 | 0,22 | 0,650\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Recherche | 0,00 | 0,67 | 1,00 | 0,56 | 0,528\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Recherche | 0,00 | 0,67 | 1,00 | 0,56 | 0,528\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Poids : Salaire=30 %, Equilibre=25 %, Passion=25 %, Securite=20 %\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Poids : Salaire=30 %, Equilibre=25 %, Passion=25 %, Securite=20 %\r\n"
+ ]
}
],
"source": [
@@ -1921,10 +2283,10 @@
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- "duration": 0.00762,
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@@ -1943,19 +2305,19 @@
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},
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@@ -1968,54 +2330,75 @@
},
"outputs": [
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Analyse de sensibilite : poids du Salaire\n\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Analyse de sensibilite : poids du Salaire\n",
+ "\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "w_salaire | Meilleur choix | V_meilleur\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "w_salaire | Meilleur choix | V_meilleur\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "----------|----------------------|-----------\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "----------|----------------------|-----------\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": " 10 % | Recherche | 0,679\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ " 10 % | Recherche | 0,679\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": " 20 % | Grande Entreprise | 0,623\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ " 20 % | Grande Entreprise | 0,623\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": " 30 % | Freelance | 0,650\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ " 30 % | Freelance | 0,650\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": " 40 % | Freelance | 0,700\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ " 40 % | Freelance | 0,700\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": " 50 % | Freelance | 0,750\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ " 50 % | Freelance | 0,750\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "=> Le choix optimal change selon l'importance accordee au salaire.\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "=> Le choix optimal change selon l'importance accordee au salaire.\r\n"
+ ]
}
],
"source": [
@@ -2055,11 +2438,20 @@
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"id": "7d0c9e76",
- "metadata": {},
- "source": [
- "### Lecture : trois gagnants pour un même jeu de données — la décision tient à un poids\n",
- "\n",
- "Le choix optimal change **deux fois** de gagnant sur la plage : **Recherche** tant que le poids du salaire reste bas (10 % : sa passion 1,000 et son équilibre 0,667 portent, malgré le salaire 0,000), **Grande Entreprise** sur la bande intermédiaire (~20-25 % — le profil le plus plat de la table : 0,80 / 0,56 / 0,44 / 0,78, jamais extrême), puis **Freelance** au-delà (~25-30 % : son salaire 1,000 prend le dessus). Aucune de ces réponses n'est « la » bonne : chacune est optimale **pour des préférences différentes** — c'est la réponse honnête à « quelle carrière choisir ? » quand le poids du salaire est mal connu. La question opérationnelle devient : *mon choix est-il robuste ?* Si votre poids de salaire estimé est 30 % mais que votre vraie préférence pourrait être 20 %, la décision change de gagnant — d'où l'intérêt de la fin du notebook, où l'inférence bayésienne **estime** les poids depuis des choix observés au lieu de les demander. Dix ou vingt choix observés resserreraient le posterior autour des poids révélés, et diraient si l'écart entre déclaré et révélé se referme avec la pratique."
+ "metadata": {
+ "papermill": {
+ "duration": 0.022843,
+ "end_time": "2026-09-23T07:20:04.583815",
+ "exception": false,
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:20:04.560972",
+ "status": "completed"
+ },
+ "tags": []
+ },
+ "source": [
+ "### Lecture : trois gagnants pour un même jeu de données — la décision tient à un poids\n",
+ "\n",
+ "Le choix optimal change **deux fois** de gagnant sur la plage : **Recherche** tant que le poids du salaire reste bas (10 % : sa passion 1,000 et son équilibre 0,667 portent, malgré le salaire 0,000), **Grande Entreprise** sur la bande intermédiaire (~20-25 % — le profil le plus plat de la table : 0,80 / 0,56 / 0,44 / 0,78, jamais extrême), puis **Freelance** au-delà (~25-30 % : son salaire 1,000 prend le dessus). Aucune de ces réponses n'est « la » bonne : chacune est optimale **pour des préférences différentes** — c'est la réponse honnête à « quelle carrière choisir ? » quand le poids du salaire est mal connu. La question opérationnelle devient : *mon choix est-il robuste ?* Si votre poids de salaire estimé est 30 % mais que votre vraie préférence pourrait être 20 %, la décision change de gagnant — d'où l'intérêt de la fin du notebook, où l'inférence bayésienne **estime** les poids depuis des choix observés au lieu de les demander. Dix ou vingt choix observés resserreraient le posterior autour des poids révélés, et diraient si l'écart entre déclaré et révélé se referme avec la pratique."
]
},
{
@@ -2068,19 +2460,19 @@
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+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:20:04.605284",
"status": "completed"
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"polyglot_notebook": {
@@ -2093,474 +2485,662 @@
},
"outputs": [
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Tableau de sensibilite : V selon le poids du Salaire\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Tableau de sensibilite : V selon le poids du Salaire\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
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+ "output_type": "stream",
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{
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"name": "stdout",
- "text": "w_salaire |"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "w_salaire |"
+ ]
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{
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+ "output_type": "stream",
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+ "output_type": "stream",
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+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Interpretation :\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "- Les valeurs en gras (max par colonne) indiquent le meilleur choix\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "- Les valeurs en gras (max par colonne) indiquent le meilleur choix\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "- Freelance domine pour w_salaire > 25%\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "- Freelance domine pour w_salaire > 25%\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "- Recherche domine pour w_salaire < 15%\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "- Recherche domine pour w_salaire < 15%\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
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- "text": "=> Le choix optimal depend fortement des preferences sur le salaire\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "=> Le choix optimal depend fortement des preferences sur le salaire\r\n"
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}
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@@ -2630,10 +3210,10 @@
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@@ -2666,25 +3246,27 @@
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},
"outputs": [
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Exercice a completer : analyse de sensibilite multi-attributs\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Exercice a completer : analyse de sensibilite multi-attributs\r\n"
+ ]
}
],
"source": [
@@ -2720,10 +3302,10 @@
"id": "ba2c1349",
"metadata": {
"papermill": {
- "duration": 0.011066,
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@@ -2742,19 +3324,19 @@
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@@ -2767,84 +3349,117 @@
},
"outputs": [
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Compiling model..."
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Compiling model..."
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "done.\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "done.\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Compiling model..."
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Compiling model..."
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "done.\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "done.\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Compiling model..."
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Compiling model..."
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "done.\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "done.\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Compiling model..."
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Compiling model..."
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "done.\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "done.\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Distributions des attributs :\n\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Distributions des attributs :\n",
+ "\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Projet A : Rendement ~ Gaussian(0,08, 0,01), Risque ~ Gaussian(0,15, 0,005)\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Projet A : Rendement ~ Gaussian(0,08, 0,01), Risque ~ Gaussian(0,15, 0,005)\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Projet B : Rendement ~ Gaussian(0,12, 0,02), Risque ~ Gaussian(0,25, 0,01)\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Projet B : Rendement ~ Gaussian(0,12, 0,02), Risque ~ Gaussian(0,25, 0,01)\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "E[U(Projet A)] = 0,5084\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "E[U(Projet A)] = 0,5101\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "E[U(Projet B)] = 0,4861\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "E[U(Projet B)] = 0,4884\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "=> Decision optimale : Projet A\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "=> Decision optimale : Projet A\r\n"
+ ]
}
],
"source": [
@@ -2885,7 +3500,7 @@
"Func v_risque = r => 1 - Math.Max(0, Math.Min(1, r / 0.40));\n",
"\n",
"// Calcul par Monte Carlo de E[U]\n",
- "var rng = new Random(42);\n",
+ "Microsoft.ML.Probabilistic.Math.Rand.Restart(42); // Gaussian.Sample() tire dans Rand, le générateur global d'Infer.NET\n",
"int N = 5000;\n",
"\n",
"double sumU_A = 0, sumU_B = 0;\n",
@@ -2916,10 +3531,10 @@
"id": "89a2b891",
"metadata": {
"papermill": {
- "duration": 0.019057,
- "end_time": "2026-07-31T19:55:07.487358",
+ "duration": 0.028405,
+ "end_time": "2026-09-23T07:20:08.727052",
"exception": false,
- "start_time": "2026-07-31T19:55:07.468301",
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:20:08.698647",
"status": "completed"
},
"tags": []
@@ -2940,10 +3555,12 @@
"\n",
"| Projet | E[U] | Interpretation |\n",
"|--------|------|----------------|\n",
- "| **A** | 0.5100 | Gagnant |\n",
- "| B | 0.4852 | Perdant |\n",
+ "| **A** | 0.5101 | Gagnant |\n",
+ "| B | 0.4884 | Perdant |\n",
+ "\n",
+ "**Ecart** : environ 4.3% en faveur du Projet A\n",
"\n",
- "**Ecart** : environ 4.9% en faveur du Projet A\n",
+ "> **Bruit Monte Carlo** : ces deux valeurs sont des moyennes sur 5000 tirages. La graine `Rand.Restart(42)` les rend reproductibles d'une exécution à l'autre : `Gaussian.Sample()` tire dans `Rand`, le générateur global d'Infer.NET, et non dans un `System.Random`. Une autre graine déplacerait chaque E[U] de quelques millièmes, soit bien moins que l'écart de 0.02 entre les deux projets : la décision ne dépend pas de la graine.\n",
"\n",
"### Decomposition de la decision\n",
"\n",
@@ -2967,10 +3584,10 @@
"id": "b011e78c",
"metadata": {
"papermill": {
- "duration": 0.019449,
- "end_time": "2026-07-31T19:55:07.519087",
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+ "end_time": "2026-09-23T07:20:08.784980",
"exception": false,
- "start_time": "2026-07-31T19:55:07.499638",
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:20:08.756008",
"status": "completed"
},
"tags": []
@@ -2998,16 +3615,16 @@
"language": "csharp"
},
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- "shell.execute_reply": "2026-07-31T19:55:07.658339Z"
+ "iopub.execute_input": "2026-09-23T07:20:08.844513Z",
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+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:20:08.814865",
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"tags": [],
@@ -3017,34 +3634,47 @@
},
"outputs": [
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Vos resultats SMART :\n\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Vos resultats SMART :\n",
+ "\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Option 1 : V = 0,705\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Option 1 : V = 0,705\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Option 2 : V = 0,665\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Option 2 : V = 0,665\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Option 3 : V = 0,750\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Option 3 : V = 0,750\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Modifiez les valeurs ci-dessus pour votre probleme personnel !\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Modifiez les valeurs ci-dessus pour votre probleme personnel !\r\n"
+ ]
}
],
"source": [
@@ -3095,10 +3725,10 @@
"id": "e11c6b19",
"metadata": {
"papermill": {
- "duration": 0.017638,
- "end_time": "2026-07-31T19:55:07.692534",
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"exception": false,
- "start_time": "2026-07-31T19:55:07.674896",
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:20:08.988452",
"status": "completed"
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@@ -3130,19 +3760,19 @@
"id": "42ef07f7",
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- "shell.execute_reply": "2026-07-31T19:55:08.350145Z"
+ "iopub.execute_input": "2026-09-23T07:20:09.105843Z",
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+ "shell.execute_reply": "2026-09-23T07:20:09.863145Z"
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- "duration": 0.638679,
- "end_time": "2026-07-31T19:55:08.350528",
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"polyglot_notebook": {
@@ -3155,99 +3785,141 @@
},
"outputs": [
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Compiling model..."
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Compiling model..."
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "done.\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "done.\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "=== Inference Bayesienne des Poids MAUT ===\n\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "=== Inference Bayesienne des Poids MAUT ===\n",
+ "\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Choix observes : Securite, Prix, Securite, Securite, Prix\n\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Choix observes : Securite, Prix, Securite, Securite, Prix\n",
+ "\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Prior (Dirichlet uniforme) :\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Prior (Dirichlet uniforme) :\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": " Pseudo-counts : [1, 1, 1, 1]\n\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ " Pseudo-counts : [1, 1, 1, 1]\n",
+ "\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Posterior (apres 5 observations) :\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Posterior (apres 5 observations) :\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": " w_Prix = 33,3 %\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ " w_Prix = 33,3 %\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": " w_Securite = 44,4 %\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ " w_Securite = 44,4 %\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": " w_Consommation = 11,1 %\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ " w_Consommation = 11,1 %\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": " w_Confort = 11,1 %\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ " w_Confort = 11,1 %\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "\nDistribution Dirichlet posterior : Dirichlet(3 4 1 1)\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "\n",
+ "Distribution Dirichlet posterior : Dirichlet(3 4 1 1)\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Comparaison :\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Comparaison :\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": " Swing weights (manuel) : Prix=35%, Securite=30%, Conso=20%, Confort=15%\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ " Swing weights (manuel) : Prix=35%, Securite=30%, Conso=20%, Confort=15%\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": " Inference bayesienne : Prix=33 %, Securite=44 %, Conso=11 %, Confort=11 %\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ " Inference bayesienne : Prix=33 %, Securite=44 %, Conso=11 %, Confort=11 %\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "=> L'inference bayesienne revele les poids IMPLICITES du decideur !\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "=> L'inference bayesienne revele les poids IMPLICITES du decideur !\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": " Ici, la Securite domine (3/5 choix), confirmant son importance.\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ " Ici, la Securite domine (3/5 choix), confirmant son importance.\r\n"
+ ]
}
],
"source": [
@@ -3310,10 +3982,10 @@
"id": "8cd692b2",
"metadata": {
"papermill": {
- "duration": 0.012422,
- "end_time": "2026-07-31T19:55:08.378986",
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+ "end_time": "2026-09-23T07:20:09.926877",
"exception": false,
- "start_time": "2026-07-31T19:55:08.366564",
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:20:09.896389",
"status": "completed"
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"tags": []
@@ -3357,19 +4029,19 @@
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- "iopub.status.idle": "2026-07-31T19:55:08.471089Z",
- "shell.execute_reply": "2026-07-31T19:55:08.470913Z"
+ "iopub.execute_input": "2026-09-23T07:20:09.990341Z",
+ "iopub.status.busy": "2026-09-23T07:20:09.988823Z",
+ "iopub.status.idle": "2026-09-23T07:20:10.078301Z",
+ "shell.execute_reply": "2026-09-23T07:20:10.078301Z"
},
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"name": "polyglot-notebook"
},
"papermill": {
- "duration": 0.073899,
- "end_time": "2026-07-31T19:55:08.471156",
+ "duration": 0.121417,
+ "end_time": "2026-09-23T07:20:10.078810",
"exception": false,
- "start_time": "2026-07-31T19:55:08.397257",
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:20:09.957393",
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"polyglot_notebook": {
@@ -3382,69 +4054,95 @@
},
"outputs": [
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Evolution des poids MAUT : Prior -> Posterior\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Evolution des poids MAUT : Prior -> Posterior\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Attribut | Prior (uniforme) | Posterior (infere) | Evolution\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Attribut | Prior (uniforme) | Posterior (infere) | Evolution\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "--------------|------------------|--------------------|-----------\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "--------------|------------------|--------------------|-----------\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Prix | 25 % | 33,3 % | 0,083 ^\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Prix | 25 % | 33,3 % | 0,083 ^\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Securite | 25 % | 44,4 % | 0,194 ^\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Securite | 25 % | 44,4 % | 0,194 ^\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Consommation | 25 % | 11,1 % | -0,139 v\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Consommation | 25 % | 11,1 % | -0,139 v\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Confort | 25 % | 11,1 % | -0,139 v\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Confort | 25 % | 11,1 % | -0,139 v\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Interpretation :\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Interpretation :\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": " ^ : L'attribut est plus important que prevu (choisi souvent)\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ " ^ : L'attribut est plus important que prevu (choisi souvent)\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": " v : L'attribut est moins important que prevu\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ " v : L'attribut est moins important que prevu\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": " = : L'importance reste proche du prior\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ " = : L'importance reste proche du prior\r\n"
+ ]
}
],
"source": [
@@ -3481,7 +4179,16 @@
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"id": "8c3d3548",
- "metadata": {},
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+ "duration": 0.034664,
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+ "exception": false,
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:20:10.109702",
+ "status": "completed"
+ },
+ "tags": []
+ },
"source": [
"### Lecture : élicitation contre révélation — deux sources de poids, deux vérités\n",
"\n",
@@ -3494,19 +4201,19 @@
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"polyglot_notebook": {
@@ -3519,71 +4226,165 @@
},
"outputs": [
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Compiling model..."
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Compiling model..."
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "done.\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "done.\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Structure du modele bayesien des poids (rendu SVG ci-dessous).\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Structure du modele bayesien des poids (rendu SVG ci-dessous).\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Posterior : Dirichlet(2 3 1 1)\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Posterior : Dirichlet(2 3 1 1)\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Lecture du factor graph :\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Lecture du factor graph :\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": " - Le noeud Dirichlet (1,1,1,1) encode le prior uniforme sur les poids.\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ " - Le noeud Dirichlet (1,1,1,1) encode le prior uniforme sur les poids.\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": " - La variable latente `poids` (simplex de dimension 4) est tiree de ce prior.\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ " - La variable latente `poids` (simplex de dimension 4) est tiree de ce prior.\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": " - Chaque observation Discrete (choix_observes) conditionne ce prior.\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ " - Chaque observation Discrete (choix_observes) conditionne ce prior.\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": " - Le posterior Dirichlet(2 3 1 1) traduit les 3 choix observes (index 1 dominant).\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ " - Le posterior Dirichlet(2 3 1 1) traduit les 3 choix observes (index 1 dominant).\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "display_data",
"data": {
- "text/html": "\r\n\r\n
Model_08_19_26_03_11_09_25.svg
\r\n
\r\n \r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n
\r\n\r\n
\r\n
"
+ "text/html": [
+ "\n",
+ "\n",
+ "
Model_09_23_26_09_20_10_31.svg
\n",
+ "
\n",
+ " \r\n",
+ "\r\n",
+ "\r\n",
+ "\r\n",
+ "
\r\n",
+ "\n",
+ "
\n",
+ "
"
+ ]
},
- "metadata": {}
- },
- {
- "output_type": "stream",
- "name": "stderr",
- "text": "\r\nwarning CS1701: En supposant que la référence d'assembly 'Microsoft.AspNetCore.Html.Abstractions, Version=2.2.0.0, Culture=neutral, PublicKeyToken=adb9793829ddae60' utilisée par 'Microsoft.DotNet.Interactive' correspond à l'identité 'Microsoft.AspNetCore.Html.Abstractions, Version=9.0.0.0, Culture=neutral, PublicKeyToken=adb9793829ddae60' de 'Microsoft.AspNetCore.Html.Abstractions', il se peut que vous deviez fournir une stratégie runtime\r\n\r\n"
+ "metadata": {},
+ "output_type": "display_data"
}
],
"source": [
@@ -3617,7 +4418,7 @@
"Console.WriteLine(\" - Chaque observation Discrete (choix_observes) conditionne ce prior.\");\n",
"Console.WriteLine(\" - Le posterior Dirichlet(2 3 1 1) traduit les 3 choix observes (index 1 dominant).\");\n",
"\n",
- "display(HTML(FactorGraphHelper.GetLatestFactorGraphHtml()));"
+ "FactorGraphHelper.GetLatestFactorGraphHtml().DisplayAs(\"text/html\");"
]
},
{
@@ -3625,10 +4426,10 @@
"id": "43c800a8",
"metadata": {
"papermill": {
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"exception": false,
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+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:20:11.564413",
"status": "completed"
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"tags": []
@@ -3679,19 +4480,19 @@
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- "shell.execute_reply": "2026-07-31T19:55:09.055969Z"
+ "iopub.execute_input": "2026-09-23T07:20:11.688283Z",
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},
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"name": "polyglot-notebook"
},
"papermill": {
- "duration": 0.043632,
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+ "duration": 0.0908,
+ "end_time": "2026-09-23T07:20:11.716840",
"exception": false,
- "start_time": "2026-07-31T19:55:09.012588",
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:20:11.626040",
"status": "completed"
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"polyglot_notebook": {
@@ -3712,10 +4513,10 @@
"id": "c98816de",
"metadata": {
"papermill": {
- "duration": 0.013368,
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+ "duration": 0.037873,
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"exception": false,
- "start_time": "2026-07-31T19:55:09.068555",
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:20:11.752769",
"status": "completed"
},
"tags": []
@@ -3775,6 +4576,18 @@
"pygments_lexer": "csharp",
"version": "13.0"
},
+ "papermill": {
+ "default_parameters": {},
+ "duration": 18.132161,
+ "end_time": "2026-09-23T07:20:12.174825",
+ "environment_variables": {},
+ "exception": null,
+ "input_path": "DecInfer-04-Multi-Attribute.ipynb",
+ "output_path": "DecInfer-04-Multi-Attribute.ipynb",
+ "parameters": {},
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:19:54.042664",
+ "version": "2.6.0"
+ },
"polyglot_notebook": {
"kernelInfo": {
"defaultKernelName": "csharp",
@@ -3790,4 +4603,4 @@
},
"nbformat": 4,
"nbformat_minor": 5
-}
+}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/MyIA.AI.Notebooks/Probas/DecisionTheory/DecInfer/DecInfer-05-Decision-Networks.ipynb b/MyIA.AI.Notebooks/Probas/DecisionTheory/DecInfer/DecInfer-05-Decision-Networks.ipynb
index f4a6f21223..c1210f9904 100644
--- a/MyIA.AI.Notebooks/Probas/DecisionTheory/DecInfer/DecInfer-05-Decision-Networks.ipynb
+++ b/MyIA.AI.Notebooks/Probas/DecisionTheory/DecInfer/DecInfer-05-Decision-Networks.ipynb
@@ -5,17 +5,16 @@
"id": "eed22678",
"metadata": {
"papermill": {
- "duration": 0.005009,
- "end_time": "2026-06-22T19:12:02.935409",
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"exception": false,
- "start_time": "2026-06-22T19:12:02.930400",
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:16:01.686808",
"status": "completed"
},
"tags": []
},
"source": [
- "# DecInfer-05-Decision-Networks : Reseaux de Decision",
- "\n",
+ "# DecInfer-05-Decision-Networks : Reseaux de Decision\n",
"**Serie** : Programmation Probabiliste avec Infer.NET (5/10) \n",
"**Duree estimee** : 55 minutes \n",
"**Prerequis** : Notebooks 3 (Factor Graphs), 14-16 (Utilite)\n",
@@ -45,10 +44,10 @@
"id": "d96a453b",
"metadata": {
"papermill": {
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"exception": false,
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"id": "3f4c4860",
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"exception": false,
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@@ -109,21 +108,136 @@
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"exception": false,
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+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:16:01.749024",
"status": "completed"
},
"tags": []
},
"outputs": [
+ {
+ "data": {
+ "text/html": [
+ "\r\n",
+ "\r\n",
+ "
\r\n",
+ " The below script needs to be able to find the current output cell; this is an easy method to get it.\r\n",
+ "
\r\n",
+ " \r\n",
+ "
"
+ ]
+ },
+ "metadata": {},
+ "output_type": "display_data"
+ },
{
"data": {
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@@ -159,10 +273,10 @@
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"exception": false,
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+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:16:05.208193",
"status": "completed"
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@@ -177,19 +291,19 @@
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- "shell.execute_reply": "2026-06-22T19:12:07.519908Z"
+ "iopub.execute_input": "2026-09-23T07:16:05.232417Z",
+ "iopub.status.busy": "2026-09-23T07:16:05.232417Z",
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"name": "polyglot-notebook"
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"exception": false,
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@@ -222,10 +336,10 @@
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@@ -289,16 +403,16 @@
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+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:16:06.027758",
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"exception": false,
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"status": "completed"
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@@ -423,10 +537,10 @@
"id": "03ae930b",
"metadata": {
"papermill": {
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"exception": false,
- "start_time": "2026-06-22T19:12:07.861585",
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:16:06.216084",
"status": "completed"
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@@ -440,10 +554,10 @@
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"exception": false,
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+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:16:06.231019",
"status": "completed"
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@@ -497,16 +611,16 @@
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- "shell.execute_reply": "2026-06-22T19:12:08.055597Z"
+ "iopub.execute_input": "2026-09-23T07:16:06.256603Z",
+ "iopub.status.busy": "2026-09-23T07:16:06.256603Z",
+ "iopub.status.idle": "2026-09-23T07:16:06.338549Z",
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"exception": false,
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@@ -671,10 +785,10 @@
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"exception": false,
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@@ -708,10 +822,10 @@
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@@ -762,10 +876,10 @@
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@@ -783,16 +897,16 @@
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- "shell.execute_reply": "2026-06-22T19:12:08.361546Z"
+ "iopub.execute_input": "2026-09-23T07:16:06.449515Z",
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@@ -924,10 +1038,10 @@
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+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:16:06.646023",
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@@ -956,10 +1070,10 @@
"id": "bf82c99e",
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@@ -984,10 +1098,10 @@
"id": "d6d35913",
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@@ -1005,16 +1119,16 @@
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+ "iopub.execute_input": "2026-09-23T07:16:06.698013Z",
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+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:16:06.690503",
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@@ -1222,10 +1336,10 @@
"id": "edfe634d",
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+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:16:06.779185",
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@@ -1270,10 +1384,10 @@
"id": "620feca5",
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+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:16:06.795343",
"status": "completed"
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@@ -1313,16 +1427,16 @@
"id": "0f010bc7",
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- "shell.execute_reply": "2026-06-22T19:12:08.744116Z"
+ "iopub.execute_input": "2026-09-23T07:16:06.830052Z",
+ "iopub.status.busy": "2026-09-23T07:16:06.830052Z",
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@@ -1373,10 +1487,10 @@
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@@ -1390,10 +1504,10 @@
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@@ -1428,16 +1542,16 @@
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+ "iopub.execute_input": "2026-09-23T07:16:06.920062Z",
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+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:16:06.910269",
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@@ -1581,10 +1695,10 @@
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@@ -1627,10 +1741,10 @@
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@@ -1670,16 +1784,16 @@
"id": "cfb0c510",
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+ "iopub.execute_input": "2026-09-23T07:16:07.044578Z",
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@@ -1738,10 +1852,10 @@
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+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:16:07.089534",
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@@ -1764,10 +1878,10 @@
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+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:16:07.105282",
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@@ -1791,16 +1905,16 @@
"language": "csharp"
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+ "iopub.execute_input": "2026-09-23T07:16:07.131981Z",
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+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:16:07.119964",
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@@ -1976,10 +2090,10 @@
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@@ -2024,10 +2138,10 @@
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@@ -2049,19 +2163,19 @@
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- "shell.execute_reply": "2026-06-22T19:12:11.270291Z"
+ "iopub.execute_input": "2026-09-23T07:16:09.262073Z",
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+ "shell.execute_reply": "2026-09-23T07:16:10.410781Z"
},
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"name": "polyglot-notebook"
},
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- "duration": 0.631245,
- "end_time": "2026-06-22T19:12:11.270291",
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+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:16:09.243035",
"status": "completed"
},
"polyglot_notebook": {
@@ -2101,14 +2215,14 @@
{
"data": {
"text/html": [
- "\r\n",
- "\r\n",
- "
Model_06_22_26_21_12_10_69.svg
\r\n",
- "
\r\n",
+ "\n",
+ "
\n",
+ "
Model_09_23_26_09_16_09_35.svg
\n",
+ "
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" \r\n",
"\r\n",
- "\r\n",
"\r\n",
"\r\n",
- "\r\n",
- "
\r\n",
+ "\n",
+ "
\n",
"
"
]
},
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "display_data"
- },
- {
- "name": "stderr",
- "output_type": "stream",
- "text": [
- "\r\n",
- "warning CS1701: En supposant que la référence d'assembly 'Microsoft.AspNetCore.Html.Abstractions, Version=2.2.0.0, Culture=neutral, PublicKeyToken=adb9793829ddae60' utilisée par 'Microsoft.DotNet.Interactive' correspond à l'identité 'Microsoft.AspNetCore.Html.Abstractions, Version=9.0.0.0, Culture=neutral, PublicKeyToken=adb9793829ddae60' de 'Microsoft.AspNetCore.Html.Abstractions', il se peut que vous deviez fournir une stratégie runtime\r\n",
- "\r\n"
- ]
}
],
"source": [
@@ -2253,7 +2358,7 @@
"Console.WriteLine();\n",
"\n",
"// Afficher le factor graph inline si disponible\n",
- "display(HTML(FactorGraphHelper.GetLatestFactorGraphHtml(700)));"
+ "FactorGraphHelper.GetLatestFactorGraphHtml(700).DisplayAs(\"text/html\");"
]
},
{
@@ -2261,10 +2366,10 @@
"id": "6156a898",
"metadata": {
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@@ -2287,10 +2392,10 @@
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@@ -2308,10 +2413,10 @@
"id": "1bf4706f",
"metadata": {
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+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:16:10.465776",
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@@ -2331,19 +2436,19 @@
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- "shell.execute_reply": "2026-06-22T19:12:11.795752Z"
+ "iopub.execute_input": "2026-09-23T07:16:10.504272Z",
+ "iopub.status.busy": "2026-09-23T07:16:10.504272Z",
+ "iopub.status.idle": "2026-09-23T07:16:11.193937Z",
+ "shell.execute_reply": "2026-09-23T07:16:11.193937Z"
},
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"name": "polyglot-notebook"
},
"papermill": {
- "duration": 0.444201,
- "end_time": "2026-06-22T19:12:11.795752",
+ "duration": 0.70404,
+ "end_time": "2026-09-23T07:16:11.193937",
"exception": false,
- "start_time": "2026-06-22T19:12:11.351551",
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:16:10.489897",
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@@ -2524,10 +2629,10 @@
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- "start_time": "2026-06-22T19:12:11.808977",
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:16:11.206721",
"status": "completed"
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@@ -2550,19 +2655,19 @@
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- "shell.execute_reply": "2026-06-22T19:12:11.944629Z"
+ "iopub.execute_input": "2026-09-23T07:16:11.249221Z",
+ "iopub.status.busy": "2026-09-23T07:16:11.249221Z",
+ "iopub.status.idle": "2026-09-23T07:16:11.688823Z",
+ "shell.execute_reply": "2026-09-23T07:16:11.688823Z"
},
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"name": "polyglot-notebook"
},
"papermill": {
- "duration": 0.11253,
- "end_time": "2026-06-22T19:12:11.944629",
+ "duration": 0.454103,
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"exception": false,
- "start_time": "2026-06-22T19:12:11.832099",
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:16:11.234720",
"status": "completed"
},
"polyglot_notebook": {
@@ -2574,14 +2679,14 @@
{
"data": {
"text/html": [
- "\r\n",
- "
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- "
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+ "
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+ "
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+ "
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" \r\n",
"\r\n",
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- "
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+ "\n",
+ "
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"
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]
},
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "display_data"
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- {
- "name": "stderr",
- "output_type": "stream",
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- "\r\n"
- ]
}
],
"source": [
"// Affichage du factor graph genere par la cellule precedente\n",
"// Le graphe montre la structure : Maladie (prior) -> TestResult (likelihood)\n",
- "display(HTML(FactorGraphHelper.GetLatestFactorGraphHtml(700)));"
+ "FactorGraphHelper.GetLatestFactorGraphHtml(700).DisplayAs(\"text/html\");"
]
},
{
@@ -2714,10 +2810,10 @@
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@@ -2757,10 +2853,10 @@
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@@ -2783,10 +2879,10 @@
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@@ -2809,19 +2905,19 @@
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- "shell.execute_reply": "2026-06-22T19:12:12.088059Z"
+ "iopub.execute_input": "2026-09-23T07:16:11.771151Z",
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},
"papermill": {
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@@ -2872,10 +2968,10 @@
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@@ -2895,10 +2991,10 @@
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@@ -2924,10 +3020,10 @@
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+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:16:11.853687",
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@@ -2944,19 +3040,19 @@
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},
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"name": "polyglot-notebook"
},
"papermill": {
- "duration": 2.18258,
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"exception": false,
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@@ -3312,10 +3408,10 @@
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@@ -3361,19 +3457,19 @@
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+ "iopub.execute_input": "2026-09-23T07:16:13.946278Z",
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},
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"name": "polyglot-notebook"
},
"papermill": {
- "duration": 1.064537,
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"exception": false,
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+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:16:13.927188",
"status": "completed"
},
"polyglot_notebook": {
@@ -3462,14 +3558,14 @@
{
"data": {
"text/html": [
- "\r\n",
- "
\r\n",
- "
Model_06_22_26_21_12_15_12.svg
\r\n",
- "
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+ "\n",
+ "
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+ "
Model_09_23_26_09_16_15_21.svg
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+ "
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" \r\n",
"\r\n",
- "\r\n",
"\r\n",
"\r\n",
- "\r\n",
- "
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+ "\n",
+ "
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"
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]
},
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "display_data"
- },
- {
- "name": "stderr",
- "output_type": "stream",
- "text": [
- "\r\n",
- "warning CS1701: En supposant que la référence d'assembly 'Microsoft.AspNetCore.Html.Abstractions, Version=2.2.0.0, Culture=neutral, PublicKeyToken=adb9793829ddae60' utilisée par 'Microsoft.DotNet.Interactive' correspond à l'identité 'Microsoft.AspNetCore.Html.Abstractions, Version=9.0.0.0, Culture=neutral, PublicKeyToken=adb9793829ddae60' de 'Microsoft.AspNetCore.Html.Abstractions', il se peut que vous deviez fournir une stratégie runtime\r\n",
- "\r\n"
- ]
}
],
"source": [
@@ -3565,7 +3652,7 @@
"Console.WriteLine();\n",
"\n",
"// Afficher le factor graph\n",
- "display(HTML(FactorGraphHelper.GetLatestFactorGraphHtml(700)));"
+ "FactorGraphHelper.GetLatestFactorGraphHtml(700).DisplayAs(\"text/html\");"
]
},
{
@@ -3573,10 +3660,10 @@
"id": "8d7fff68",
"metadata": {
"papermill": {
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"exception": false,
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"status": "completed"
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@@ -3621,16 +3708,16 @@
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- "iopub.status.idle": "2026-06-22T19:12:15.584956Z",
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@@ -3686,10 +3773,10 @@
"id": "92925906",
"metadata": {
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"exception": false,
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@@ -3730,10 +3817,10 @@
"id": "38e29c32",
"metadata": {
"papermill": {
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"exception": false,
- "start_time": "2026-06-22T19:12:15.625334",
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:16:16.331117",
"status": "completed"
},
"tags": []
@@ -3781,6 +3868,20 @@
}
],
"metadata": {
+ "cost": {
+ "api_provider": "none",
+ "api_usd_est": 0.0,
+ "cpu_min": 6,
+ "external_account": null,
+ "free_alternative": null,
+ "gpu_required": false,
+ "metadata_written": null,
+ "network": false,
+ "notes": "Local execution via Infer.NET (Microsoft.Research.MachineLearning) probabilistic programming. Deterministic inference engines (Expectation Propagation / Variational Message Passing) converge to fixed points given the same model, data and seed. Requires .NET Interactive kernel + Infer.NET package installed. Execution is deterministic.",
+ "reduced_pedagogical": null,
+ "reproducibility": "HIGH",
+ "validator": "manual"
+ },
"kernelspec": {
"display_name": ".NET (C#)",
"language": "C#",
@@ -3795,14 +3896,14 @@
},
"papermill": {
"default_parameters": {},
- "duration": 15.227998,
- "end_time": "2026-06-22T19:12:15.902435",
+ "duration": 17.200456,
+ "end_time": "2026-09-23T07:16:16.625952",
"environment_variables": {},
"exception": null,
"input_path": "DecInfer-05-Decision-Networks.ipynb",
"output_path": "DecInfer-05-Decision-Networks.ipynb",
"parameters": {},
- "start_time": "2026-06-22T19:12:00.674437",
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:15:59.425496",
"version": "2.6.0"
},
"polyglot_notebook": {
@@ -3816,22 +3917,8 @@
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- "notes": "Local execution via Infer.NET (Microsoft.Research.MachineLearning) probabilistic programming. Deterministic inference engines (Expectation Propagation / Variational Message Passing) converge to fixed points given the same model, data and seed. Requires .NET Interactive kernel + Infer.NET package installed. Execution is deterministic."
}
},
"nbformat": 4,
"nbformat_minor": 5
-}
+}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/MyIA.AI.Notebooks/Probas/DecisionTheory/DecInfer/DecInfer-07-Expert-Systems.ipynb b/MyIA.AI.Notebooks/Probas/DecisionTheory/DecInfer/DecInfer-07-Expert-Systems.ipynb
index fcb884941f..ef41649adf 100644
--- a/MyIA.AI.Notebooks/Probas/DecisionTheory/DecInfer/DecInfer-07-Expert-Systems.ipynb
+++ b/MyIA.AI.Notebooks/Probas/DecisionTheory/DecInfer/DecInfer-07-Expert-Systems.ipynb
@@ -5,10 +5,10 @@
"id": "d33f52ea",
"metadata": {
"papermill": {
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"exception": false,
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@@ -44,10 +44,10 @@
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"metadata": {
"papermill": {
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"exception": false,
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@@ -113,19 +113,19 @@
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- "shell.execute_reply": "2026-07-15T01:33:06.713936Z"
+ "iopub.execute_input": "2026-09-23T07:16:20.231481Z",
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+ "shell.execute_reply": "2026-09-23T07:16:22.014087Z"
},
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"name": "polyglot-notebook"
},
"papermill": {
- "duration": 1.495443,
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+ "duration": 1.806192,
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"exception": false,
- "start_time": "2026-06-04T06:32:19.015740",
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:16:20.219207",
"status": "completed"
},
"polyglot_notebook": {
@@ -139,10 +139,11 @@
"text/html": [
"\r\n",
"
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- "
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+ "
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" The below script needs to be able to find the current output cell; this is an easy method to get it.\r\n",
"
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" \r\n",
@@ -268,10 +277,10 @@
"id": "5371461a",
"metadata": {
"papermill": {
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"exception": false,
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+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:16:22.037355",
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@@ -289,16 +298,16 @@
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- "shell.execute_reply": "2026-07-15T01:33:08.380267Z"
+ "iopub.execute_input": "2026-09-23T07:16:22.071340Z",
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+ "iopub.status.idle": "2026-09-23T07:16:23.941315Z",
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},
"papermill": {
- "duration": 2.373015,
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+ "duration": 1.881523,
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"exception": false,
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@@ -339,10 +348,10 @@
"id": "ff8486d0",
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"exception": false,
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@@ -370,16 +379,16 @@
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- "shell.execute_reply": "2026-07-15T01:33:08.493796Z"
+ "iopub.execute_input": "2026-09-23T07:16:23.966258Z",
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+ "iopub.status.idle": "2026-09-23T07:16:24.195254Z",
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},
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+ "duration": 0.235553,
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"exception": false,
- "start_time": "2026-06-04T06:32:22.935124",
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:16:23.959701",
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"tags": []
@@ -427,15 +436,6 @@
"text": [
" Allergie: 0,0 %\r\n"
]
- },
- {
- "name": "stderr",
- "output_type": "stream",
- "text": [
- "\r\n",
- "(8,40): warning CS0169: Le champ 'MiniExpertSystem._utilities' n'est jamais utilisé\r\n",
- "\r\n"
- ]
}
],
"source": [
@@ -446,7 +446,6 @@
" // Base de connaissances : P(symptome|maladie)\n",
" private Dictionary<(string maladie, string symptome), double> _likelihoods;\n",
" private Dictionary
_priors;\n",
- " private Dictionary _utilities; // U(traitement, maladie)\n",
" \n",
" public MiniExpertSystem()\n",
" {\n",
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@@ -682,16 +681,16 @@
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@@ -826,10 +825,10 @@
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@@ -866,10 +865,10 @@
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@@ -908,16 +907,16 @@
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@@ -1045,10 +1044,10 @@
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@@ -1111,10 +1110,10 @@
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@@ -1139,16 +1138,16 @@
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@@ -1299,10 +1298,10 @@
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@@ -1337,10 +1336,10 @@
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@@ -1390,16 +1389,16 @@
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@@ -1409,7 +1408,7 @@
"name": "stdout",
"output_type": "stream",
"text": [
- "=== Comparaison des Criteres ===\n",
+ "=== Comparaison des Critères ===\n",
"\r\n"
]
},
@@ -1417,7 +1416,7 @@
"name": "stdout",
"output_type": "stream",
"text": [
- "Hypothese de probabilites : Recession=25 %, Stable=50 %, Croissance=25 %\n",
+ "Hypothese de probabilités : Recession=25 %, Stable=50 %, Croissance=25 %\n",
"\r\n"
]
},
@@ -1626,10 +1625,10 @@
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@@ -1684,10 +1683,10 @@
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@@ -1707,16 +1706,16 @@
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@@ -1726,7 +1725,7 @@
"name": "stdout",
"output_type": "stream",
"text": [
- "Critere Hurwicz selon gamma :\n",
+ "Critère Hurwicz selon gamma :\n",
"\r\n"
]
},
@@ -1797,7 +1796,7 @@
"name": "stdout",
"output_type": "stream",
"text": [
- "=> Differents niveaux d'optimisme menent a differentes decisions.\r\n"
+ "=> Différents niveaux d'optimisme menent a différentes decisions.\r\n"
]
}
],
@@ -1855,10 +1854,10 @@
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@@ -1899,10 +1898,10 @@
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@@ -1940,16 +1939,16 @@
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@@ -2008,10 +2007,10 @@
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@@ -2039,16 +2038,16 @@
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@@ -2168,10 +2167,10 @@
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@@ -2215,10 +2214,10 @@
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@@ -2257,10 +2256,10 @@
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@@ -2288,19 +2287,19 @@
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@@ -2313,7 +2312,7 @@
"name": "stdout",
"output_type": "stream",
"text": [
- "=== Systeme Expert Bayesien Multi-Sources ===\n",
+ "=== Système Expert Bayesien Multi-Sources ===\n",
"\r\n"
]
},
@@ -2328,7 +2327,7 @@
"name": "stdout",
"output_type": "stream",
"text": [
- " 1. Logs systeme : scores = [OK:0.10, RAM:0.15, Disque:0.65, CPU:0.10]\r\n"
+ " 1. Logs système : scores = [OK:0.10, RAM:0.15, Disque:0.65, CPU:0.10]\r\n"
]
},
{
@@ -2500,164 +2499,316 @@
}
],
"source": [
- "// Visualisation graphique du système expert Bayesien multi-sources : posterior + utilites.\n\n",
- "// Technique C548-L2 : SVG inline via SvgChartHelper.cs (#6942 MERGED), zero-dependance NuGet.\n\n",
- "// Les deux traces (posterior + utilite) sont tracees en deux chartes distinctes car elles\n\n",
- "// partagent PAS un même axe X categoriel (panne: OK/RAM/Disque/CPU vs action: Rien/Remplacer...).\n\n",
- "// SvgChartHelper.Overlay (#6958 MERGED) requiert un axe X numerique partage => inapplicable.\n\n",
- "// Le helper Overlay reste disponible pour les courbes VoI type DecInfer-06 EVPI ; ici c'est\n\n",
- "// l'usage canonique Bar() qui s'applique. Cf #6927 / #3801 / #6942 / #6958 / See #6954 (App-7b).\n\n",
- "#load \"../../Infer/SvgChartHelper.cs\"\n\n",
- "\n\n",
- "int nPannes = 4; // 0=OK, 1=RAM, 2=Disque, 3=CPU\n\n",
- "Range panneRange = new Range(nPannes).Named(\"panneRange\");\n\n",
- "string[] pannes = { \"OK\", \"RAM\", \"Disque\", \"CPU\" };\n\n",
- "\n\n",
- "// === Panne latente (verite a inferer) ===\n\n",
- "Variable panne = Variable.DiscreteUniform(nPannes).Named(\"panne\");\n\n",
- "panne.SetValueRange(panneRange);\n\n",
- "\n\n",
- "// === Source 1 : Logs système (fiabilite a inferer) ===\n\n",
- "// Prior sur la precision des logs (Gamma car precision > 0)\n\n",
- "Variable precisionLogs = Variable.GammaFromShapeAndScale(5, 2).Named(\"precLogs\");\n\n",
- "\n\n",
- "// Scores observes dans les logs pour chaque type de panne\n\n",
- "// (Plus le score est eleve, plus la panne est probable selon les logs)\n\n",
- "double[] scoresLogsObserves = { 0.1, 0.15, 0.65, 0.10 }; // Logs suggerent Disque\n\n",
- "\n\n",
- "// Le score observe est un indicateur bruite de la vraie panne\n\n",
- "// Modèle : Si panne=k, alors score[k] est tire d'une distribution plus haute\n\n",
- "VariableArray vraiScoreMoyen = Variable.Array(panneRange).Named(\"vraiScoreMoyen\");\n\n",
- "vraiScoreMoyen[panneRange] = Variable.GaussianFromMeanAndPrecision(0.3, 1.0).ForEach(panneRange);\n\n",
- "\n\n",
- "// On observe les scores (simplifie : on conditionne sur la panne)\n\n",
- "// Score eleve pour la vraie panne, bas pour les autres\n\n",
- "Variable.ConstrainTrue(\n\n",
- " Variable.Bernoulli(0.9) // 90% chance que le score max corresponde a la vraie panne\n\n",
- ");\n\n",
- "\n\n",
- "// === Source 2 : Avis utilisateur (matrice de confusion) ===\n\n",
- "// L'utilisateur peut confondre les symptomes\n\n",
- "// Matrice de confusion fixee (connaissance experte)\n\n",
- "double[,] confusionUser = {\n\n",
- " // L'utilisateur dit: OK RAM Disque CPU\n\n",
- " /* Vraie panne OK */ { 0.85, 0.05, 0.05, 0.05 },\n\n",
- " /* Vraie panne RAM */ { 0.05, 0.60, 0.20, 0.15 },\n\n",
- " /* Vraie panne Disque */{ 0.05, 0.10, 0.75, 0.10 },\n\n",
- " /* Vraie panne CPU */ { 0.05, 0.15, 0.15, 0.65 }\n\n",
- "};\n\n",
- "\n\n",
- "Variable avisUser = Variable.New().Named(\"avisUser\");\n\n",
- "avisUser.SetValueRange(panneRange);\n\n",
- "\n\n",
- "// Avis utilisateur conditionne a la vraie panne\n\n",
- "using (Variable.Case(panne, 0))\n\n",
- " avisUser.SetTo(Variable.Discrete(confusionUser[0, 0], confusionUser[0, 1], confusionUser[0, 2], confusionUser[0, 3]));\n\n",
- "using (Variable.Case(panne, 1))\n\n",
- " avisUser.SetTo(Variable.Discrete(confusionUser[1, 0], confusionUser[1, 1], confusionUser[1, 2], confusionUser[1, 3]));\n\n",
- "using (Variable.Case(panne, 2))\n\n",
- " avisUser.SetTo(Variable.Discrete(confusionUser[2, 0], confusionUser[2, 1], confusionUser[2, 2], confusionUser[2, 3]));\n\n",
- "using (Variable.Case(panne, 3))\n\n",
- " avisUser.SetTo(Variable.Discrete(confusionUser[3, 0], confusionUser[3, 1], confusionUser[3, 2], confusionUser[3, 3]));\n\n",
- "\n\n",
- "// Observation : l'utilisateur dit \"Disque\"\n\n",
- "avisUser.ObservedValue = 2;\n\n",
- "\n\n",
- "// === Source 3 : Capteur RAM (très fiable pour RAM, bruit pour autres) ===\n\n",
- "Variable alerteRAM = Variable.New().Named(\"alerteRAM\");\n\n",
- "\n\n",
- "using (Variable.Case(panne, 0)) // OK\n\n",
- " alerteRAM.SetTo(Variable.Bernoulli(0.02)); // Faux positif 2%\n\n",
- "using (Variable.Case(panne, 1)) // RAM\n\n",
- " alerteRAM.SetTo(Variable.Bernoulli(0.95)); // Detection 95%\n\n",
- "using (Variable.Case(panne, 2)) // Disque\n\n",
- " alerteRAM.SetTo(Variable.Bernoulli(0.05)); // Bruit 5%\n\n",
- "using (Variable.Case(panne, 3)) // CPU\n\n",
- " alerteRAM.SetTo(Variable.Bernoulli(0.08)); // Bruit 8%\n\n",
- "\n\n",
- "// Observation : pas d'alerte RAM\n\n",
- "alerteRAM.ObservedValue = false;\n\n",
- "\n\n",
- "// === Inference ===\n\n",
- "InferenceEngine engineExpert = new InferenceEngine();\n\n",
- "engineExpert.Compiler.CompilerChoice = Microsoft.ML.Probabilistic.Compiler.CompilerChoice.Roslyn;\n\n",
- "engineExpert.Algorithm = new ExpectationPropagation();\n\n",
- "\n\n",
- "Console.WriteLine(\"=== Système Expert Bayesien Multi-Sources ===\\n\");\n\n",
- "Console.WriteLine(\"Sources combinees :\");\n\n",
- "Console.WriteLine(\" 1. Logs système : scores = [OK:0.10, RAM:0.15, Disque:0.65, CPU:0.10]\");\n\n",
- "Console.WriteLine(\" 2. Avis utilisateur : 'Disque'\");\n\n",
- "Console.WriteLine(\" 3. Capteur RAM : pas d'alerte\\n\");\n\n",
- "\n\n",
- "var posteriorPanne = engineExpert.Infer(panne);\n\n",
- "var posteriorPrecLogs = engineExpert.Infer(precisionLogs);\n\n",
- "\n\n",
- "Console.WriteLine(\"Posterior sur la panne :\");\n\n",
- "\n\n",
- "// === Visualisation SVG inline canon (C548-L2) ===\n\n",
- "// Avant : trace Plotly.js + cdn.plot.ly (rend BLANC en static, cf #6927).\n\n",
- "// Apres : 2 chartes SvgChartHelper.Bar() distinctes (axes categoriels distincts => Overlay N/A).\n\n",
- "\n\n",
- "var panneProbsVec = posteriorPanne.GetProbs();",
- "var panneProbs = new double[nPannes];",
- "for (int i = 0; i < nPannes; i++) panneProbs[i] = panneProbsVec[i];",
- "var panneColors = new[] { \"#4C72B0\", \"#DD8452\", \"#55A868\", \"#C44E52\" };\n\n",
- "Console.WriteLine(\" Mapping pedagogique (couleurs du chart Plotly originel preservees en legende Console) :\");\n\n",
- "for (int i = 0; i < nPannes; i++)\n\n",
- " Console.WriteLine($\" {pannes[i],-8} : {panneProbs[i]:P2} (Plotly color {panneColors[i]})\");\n\n",
- "\n\n",
- "// Bar 1 : posterior P(panne), couleur uniforme canon C548-L2.\n\n",
- "display(SvgChartHelper.Bar(\n\n",
- " \"Posterior P(panne) - 4 categories\",\n\n",
- " pannes,\n\n",
- " panneProbs,\n\n",
- " width: 560,\n\n",
- " height: 320));\n\n",
- "\n\n",
- "// Cout attendu de chaque action (matrice identique au bloc Decision robuste ci-dessous,\n\n",
- "// renommee ici chartCouts/chartActions pour eviter la collision de noms).\n\n",
- "var chartCouts = new double[,] {\n\n",
- " // OK RAM Disque CPU\n\n",
- " /* Rien */ { 0, -500, -1000, -800 },\n\n",
- " /* Rempl. RAM */{ -100, 0, -900, -700 },\n\n",
- " /* Rempl. Disk*/{ -150, -400, 0, -600 },\n\n",
- " /* Rempl. CPU */{ -300, -300, -800, 0 }\n\n",
- "};\n\n",
- "var chartActions = new[] { \"Rien\", \"Remplacer RAM\", \"Remplacer Disque\", \"Remplacer CPU\" };\n\n",
- "var chartEU = new double[4];\n\n",
- "for (int a = 0; a < 4; a++)\n\n",
- " for (int p = 0; p < nPannes; p++)\n\n",
- " chartEU[a] += panneProbs[p] * chartCouts[a, p];\n\n",
- "int chartBestA = 0;\n\n",
- "for (int a = 1; a < 4; a++)\n\n",
- " if (chartEU[a] > chartEU[chartBestA]) chartBestA = a;\n\n",
- "\n\n",
- "Console.WriteLine();\n\n",
- "Console.WriteLine($\"Diagnostic recommande : {chartActions[chartBestA]} (E[U] = {chartEU[chartBestA]:F0})\");\n\n",
- "Console.WriteLine(\" Mapping pedagogique (meilleure action en vert, autres en gris) :\");\n\n",
- "var euColors = new[] { \"#2CA02C\", \"#7F7F7F\", \"#7F7F7F\", \"#7F7F7F\" };\n\n",
- "for (int a = 0; a < 4; a++)\n\n",
- "{\n\n",
- " string tag = a == chartBestA ? \"[BEST]\" : \"[--]\";\n\n",
- " Console.WriteLine($\" {chartActions[a],-16} {tag} : E[U] = {chartEU[a],7:F0} (Plotly color {euColors[a]})\");\n\n",
- "}\n\n",
- "\n\n",
- "// Bar 2 : E[U(action)], couleur uniforme canon.\n\n",
- "var euLabelsComposed = new string[4];\n\n",
- "for (int a = 0; a < 4; a++)\n\n",
- "{\n\n",
- " string tag = a == chartBestA ? \"[BEST]\" : \"[--]\";\n\n",
- " euLabelsComposed[a] = $\"{chartActions[a]} {tag}\";\n\n",
- "}\n\n",
- "display(SvgChartHelper.Bar(\n\n",
- " \"E[U(action)] - utilite attendue par action\",\n\n",
- " euLabelsComposed,\n\n",
- " chartEU,\n\n",
- " width: 560,\n\n",
- " height: 320));\n\n",
- "\n\n",
- "Console.WriteLine();\n\n",
- "\n\n",
+ "// Visualisation graphique du système expert Bayesien multi-sources : posterior + utilites.\n",
+ "\n",
+ "// Technique C548-L2 : SVG inline via SvgChartHelper.cs (#6942 MERGED), zero-dependance NuGet.\n",
+ "\n",
+ "// Les deux traces (posterior + utilite) sont tracees en deux chartes distinctes car elles\n",
+ "\n",
+ "// partagent PAS un même axe X categoriel (panne: OK/RAM/Disque/CPU vs action: Rien/Remplacer...).\n",
+ "\n",
+ "// SvgChartHelper.Overlay (#6958 MERGED) requiert un axe X numerique partage => inapplicable.\n",
+ "\n",
+ "// Le helper Overlay reste disponible pour les courbes VoI type DecInfer-06 EVPI ; ici c'est\n",
+ "\n",
+ "// l'usage canonique Bar() qui s'applique. Cf #6927 / #3801 / #6942 / #6958 / See #6954 (App-7b).\n",
+ "\n",
+ "#load \"../../Infer/SvgChartHelper.cs\"\n",
+ "\n",
+ "\n",
+ "\n",
+ "int nPannes = 4; // 0=OK, 1=RAM, 2=Disque, 3=CPU\n",
+ "\n",
+ "Range panneRange = new Range(nPannes).Named(\"panneRange\");\n",
+ "\n",
+ "string[] pannes = { \"OK\", \"RAM\", \"Disque\", \"CPU\" };\n",
+ "\n",
+ "\n",
+ "\n",
+ "// === Panne latente (verite a inferer) ===\n",
+ "\n",
+ "Variable panne = Variable.DiscreteUniform(nPannes).Named(\"panne\");\n",
+ "\n",
+ "panne.SetValueRange(panneRange);\n",
+ "\n",
+ "\n",
+ "\n",
+ "// === Source 1 : Logs système (fiabilite a inferer) ===\n",
+ "\n",
+ "// Prior sur la precision des logs (Gamma car precision > 0)\n",
+ "\n",
+ "Variable precisionLogs = Variable.GammaFromShapeAndScale(5, 2).Named(\"precLogs\");\n",
+ "\n",
+ "\n",
+ "\n",
+ "// Scores observes dans les logs pour chaque type de panne\n",
+ "\n",
+ "// (Plus le score est eleve, plus la panne est probable selon les logs)\n",
+ "\n",
+ "double[] scoresLogsObserves = { 0.1, 0.15, 0.65, 0.10 }; // Logs suggerent Disque\n",
+ "\n",
+ "\n",
+ "\n",
+ "// Le score observe est un indicateur bruite de la vraie panne\n",
+ "\n",
+ "// Modèle : Si panne=k, alors score[k] est tire d'une distribution plus haute\n",
+ "\n",
+ "VariableArray vraiScoreMoyen = Variable.Array(panneRange).Named(\"vraiScoreMoyen\");\n",
+ "\n",
+ "vraiScoreMoyen[panneRange] = Variable.GaussianFromMeanAndPrecision(0.3, 1.0).ForEach(panneRange);\n",
+ "\n",
+ "\n",
+ "\n",
+ "// On observe les scores (simplifie : on conditionne sur la panne)\n",
+ "\n",
+ "// Score eleve pour la vraie panne, bas pour les autres\n",
+ "\n",
+ "Variable.ConstrainTrue(\n",
+ "\n",
+ " Variable.Bernoulli(0.9) // 90% chance que le score max corresponde a la vraie panne\n",
+ "\n",
+ ");\n",
+ "\n",
+ "\n",
+ "\n",
+ "// === Source 2 : Avis utilisateur (matrice de confusion) ===\n",
+ "\n",
+ "// L'utilisateur peut confondre les symptomes\n",
+ "\n",
+ "// Matrice de confusion fixee (connaissance experte)\n",
+ "\n",
+ "double[,] confusionUser = {\n",
+ "\n",
+ " // L'utilisateur dit: OK RAM Disque CPU\n",
+ "\n",
+ " /* Vraie panne OK */ { 0.85, 0.05, 0.05, 0.05 },\n",
+ "\n",
+ " /* Vraie panne RAM */ { 0.05, 0.60, 0.20, 0.15 },\n",
+ "\n",
+ " /* Vraie panne Disque */{ 0.05, 0.10, 0.75, 0.10 },\n",
+ "\n",
+ " /* Vraie panne CPU */ { 0.05, 0.15, 0.15, 0.65 }\n",
+ "\n",
+ "};\n",
+ "\n",
+ "\n",
+ "\n",
+ "Variable avisUser = Variable.New().Named(\"avisUser\");\n",
+ "\n",
+ "avisUser.SetValueRange(panneRange);\n",
+ "\n",
+ "\n",
+ "\n",
+ "// Avis utilisateur conditionne a la vraie panne\n",
+ "\n",
+ "using (Variable.Case(panne, 0))\n",
+ "\n",
+ " avisUser.SetTo(Variable.Discrete(confusionUser[0, 0], confusionUser[0, 1], confusionUser[0, 2], confusionUser[0, 3]));\n",
+ "\n",
+ "using (Variable.Case(panne, 1))\n",
+ "\n",
+ " avisUser.SetTo(Variable.Discrete(confusionUser[1, 0], confusionUser[1, 1], confusionUser[1, 2], confusionUser[1, 3]));\n",
+ "\n",
+ "using (Variable.Case(panne, 2))\n",
+ "\n",
+ " avisUser.SetTo(Variable.Discrete(confusionUser[2, 0], confusionUser[2, 1], confusionUser[2, 2], confusionUser[2, 3]));\n",
+ "\n",
+ "using (Variable.Case(panne, 3))\n",
+ "\n",
+ " avisUser.SetTo(Variable.Discrete(confusionUser[3, 0], confusionUser[3, 1], confusionUser[3, 2], confusionUser[3, 3]));\n",
+ "\n",
+ "\n",
+ "\n",
+ "// Observation : l'utilisateur dit \"Disque\"\n",
+ "\n",
+ "avisUser.ObservedValue = 2;\n",
+ "\n",
+ "\n",
+ "\n",
+ "// === Source 3 : Capteur RAM (très fiable pour RAM, bruit pour autres) ===\n",
+ "\n",
+ "Variable alerteRAM = Variable.New().Named(\"alerteRAM\");\n",
+ "\n",
+ "\n",
+ "\n",
+ "using (Variable.Case(panne, 0)) // OK\n",
+ "\n",
+ " alerteRAM.SetTo(Variable.Bernoulli(0.02)); // Faux positif 2%\n",
+ "\n",
+ "using (Variable.Case(panne, 1)) // RAM\n",
+ "\n",
+ " alerteRAM.SetTo(Variable.Bernoulli(0.95)); // Detection 95%\n",
+ "\n",
+ "using (Variable.Case(panne, 2)) // Disque\n",
+ "\n",
+ " alerteRAM.SetTo(Variable.Bernoulli(0.05)); // Bruit 5%\n",
+ "\n",
+ "using (Variable.Case(panne, 3)) // CPU\n",
+ "\n",
+ " alerteRAM.SetTo(Variable.Bernoulli(0.08)); // Bruit 8%\n",
+ "\n",
+ "\n",
+ "\n",
+ "// Observation : pas d'alerte RAM\n",
+ "\n",
+ "alerteRAM.ObservedValue = false;\n",
+ "\n",
+ "\n",
+ "\n",
+ "// === Inference ===\n",
+ "\n",
+ "InferenceEngine engineExpert = new InferenceEngine();\n",
+ "\n",
+ "engineExpert.Compiler.CompilerChoice = Microsoft.ML.Probabilistic.Compiler.CompilerChoice.Roslyn;\n",
+ "\n",
+ "engineExpert.Algorithm = new ExpectationPropagation();\n",
+ "\n",
+ "\n",
+ "\n",
+ "Console.WriteLine(\"=== Système Expert Bayesien Multi-Sources ===\\n\");\n",
+ "\n",
+ "Console.WriteLine(\"Sources combinees :\");\n",
+ "\n",
+ "Console.WriteLine(\" 1. Logs système : scores = [OK:0.10, RAM:0.15, Disque:0.65, CPU:0.10]\");\n",
+ "\n",
+ "Console.WriteLine(\" 2. Avis utilisateur : 'Disque'\");\n",
+ "\n",
+ "Console.WriteLine(\" 3. Capteur RAM : pas d'alerte\\n\");\n",
+ "\n",
+ "\n",
+ "\n",
+ "var posteriorPanne = engineExpert.Infer(panne);\n",
+ "\n",
+ "var posteriorPrecLogs = engineExpert.Infer(precisionLogs);\n",
+ "\n",
+ "\n",
+ "\n",
+ "Console.WriteLine(\"Posterior sur la panne :\");\n",
+ "\n",
+ "\n",
+ "\n",
+ "// === Visualisation SVG inline canon (C548-L2) ===\n",
+ "\n",
+ "// Avant : trace Plotly.js + cdn.plot.ly (rend BLANC en static, cf #6927).\n",
+ "\n",
+ "// Apres : 2 chartes SvgChartHelper.Bar() distinctes (axes categoriels distincts => Overlay N/A).\n",
+ "\n",
+ "\n",
+ "\n",
+ "var panneProbsVec = posteriorPanne.GetProbs();var panneProbs = new double[nPannes];for (int i = 0; i < nPannes; i++) panneProbs[i] = panneProbsVec[i];var panneColors = new[] { \"#4C72B0\", \"#DD8452\", \"#55A868\", \"#C44E52\" };\n",
+ "\n",
+ "Console.WriteLine(\" Mapping pedagogique (couleurs du chart Plotly originel preservees en legende Console) :\");\n",
+ "\n",
+ "for (int i = 0; i < nPannes; i++)\n",
+ "\n",
+ " Console.WriteLine($\" {pannes[i],-8} : {panneProbs[i]:P2} (Plotly color {panneColors[i]})\");\n",
+ "\n",
+ "\n",
+ "\n",
+ "// Bar 1 : posterior P(panne), couleur uniforme canon C548-L2.\n",
+ "\n",
+ "display(SvgChartHelper.Bar(\n",
+ "\n",
+ " \"Posterior P(panne) - 4 categories\",\n",
+ "\n",
+ " pannes,\n",
+ "\n",
+ " panneProbs,\n",
+ "\n",
+ " width: 560,\n",
+ "\n",
+ " height: 320));\n",
+ "\n",
+ "\n",
+ "\n",
+ "// Cout attendu de chaque action (matrice identique au bloc Decision robuste ci-dessous,\n",
+ "\n",
+ "// renommee ici chartCouts/chartActions pour eviter la collision de noms).\n",
+ "\n",
+ "var chartCouts = new double[,] {\n",
+ "\n",
+ " // OK RAM Disque CPU\n",
+ "\n",
+ " /* Rien */ { 0, -500, -1000, -800 },\n",
+ "\n",
+ " /* Rempl. RAM */{ -100, 0, -900, -700 },\n",
+ "\n",
+ " /* Rempl. Disk*/{ -150, -400, 0, -600 },\n",
+ "\n",
+ " /* Rempl. CPU */{ -300, -300, -800, 0 }\n",
+ "\n",
+ "};\n",
+ "\n",
+ "var chartActions = new[] { \"Rien\", \"Remplacer RAM\", \"Remplacer Disque\", \"Remplacer CPU\" };\n",
+ "\n",
+ "var chartEU = new double[4];\n",
+ "\n",
+ "for (int a = 0; a < 4; a++)\n",
+ "\n",
+ " for (int p = 0; p < nPannes; p++)\n",
+ "\n",
+ " chartEU[a] += panneProbs[p] * chartCouts[a, p];\n",
+ "\n",
+ "int chartBestA = 0;\n",
+ "\n",
+ "for (int a = 1; a < 4; a++)\n",
+ "\n",
+ " if (chartEU[a] > chartEU[chartBestA]) chartBestA = a;\n",
+ "\n",
+ "\n",
+ "\n",
+ "Console.WriteLine();\n",
+ "\n",
+ "Console.WriteLine($\"Diagnostic recommande : {chartActions[chartBestA]} (E[U] = {chartEU[chartBestA]:F0})\");\n",
+ "\n",
+ "Console.WriteLine(\" Mapping pedagogique (meilleure action en vert, autres en gris) :\");\n",
+ "\n",
+ "var euColors = new[] { \"#2CA02C\", \"#7F7F7F\", \"#7F7F7F\", \"#7F7F7F\" };\n",
+ "\n",
+ "for (int a = 0; a < 4; a++)\n",
+ "\n",
+ "{\n",
+ "\n",
+ " string tag = a == chartBestA ? \"[BEST]\" : \"[--]\";\n",
+ "\n",
+ " Console.WriteLine($\" {chartActions[a],-16} {tag} : E[U] = {chartEU[a],7:F0} (Plotly color {euColors[a]})\");\n",
+ "\n",
+ "}\n",
+ "\n",
+ "\n",
+ "\n",
+ "// Bar 2 : E[U(action)], couleur uniforme canon.\n",
+ "\n",
+ "var euLabelsComposed = new string[4];\n",
+ "\n",
+ "for (int a = 0; a < 4; a++)\n",
+ "\n",
+ "{\n",
+ "\n",
+ " string tag = a == chartBestA ? \"[BEST]\" : \"[--]\";\n",
+ "\n",
+ " euLabelsComposed[a] = $\"{chartActions[a]} {tag}\";\n",
+ "\n",
+ "}\n",
+ "\n",
+ "display(SvgChartHelper.Bar(\n",
+ "\n",
+ " \"E[U(action)] - utilite attendue par action\",\n",
+ "\n",
+ " euLabelsComposed,\n",
+ "\n",
+ " chartEU,\n",
+ "\n",
+ " width: 560,\n",
+ "\n",
+ " height: 320));\n",
+ "\n",
+ "\n",
+ "\n",
+ "Console.WriteLine();\n",
+ "\n",
+ "\n",
+ "\n",
"Console.WriteLine($\"\\nPrecision inferee des logs : {posteriorPrecLogs.GetMean():F2} (shape={posteriorPrecLogs.Shape:F1}, scale={1.0/posteriorPrecLogs.Rate:F2})\");"
]
},
@@ -2666,10 +2817,10 @@
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"papermill": {
- "duration": 0.021193,
- "end_time": "2026-06-04T06:32:29.389462",
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+ "end_time": "2026-09-23T07:16:27.837330",
"exception": false,
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@@ -2726,19 +2877,19 @@
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- "shell.execute_reply": "2026-07-15T01:33:10.402724Z"
+ "iopub.execute_input": "2026-09-23T07:16:27.869283Z",
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"name": "polyglot-notebook"
},
"papermill": {
- "duration": 0.234495,
- "end_time": "2026-06-04T06:32:29.662176",
+ "duration": 0.416824,
+ "end_time": "2026-09-23T07:16:28.268827",
"exception": false,
- "start_time": "2026-06-04T06:32:29.427681",
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:16:27.852003",
"status": "completed"
},
"polyglot_notebook": {
@@ -2750,23 +2901,74 @@
{
"data": {
"text/html": [
- "\n",
- " Aucun fichier .gv trouve.
\n",
- " Activez ShowFactorGraph = true sur le moteur d'inference.\n",
- "
"
+ "\n",
+ "\n",
+ "
Model_09_23_26_09_16_15_21.svg
\n",
+ "
\n",
+ " \r\n",
+ "\r\n",
+ "\r\n",
+ "\r\n",
+ "
\r\n",
+ "\n",
+ "
\n",
+ "
"
]
},
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "display_data"
- },
- {
- "name": "stderr",
- "output_type": "stream",
- "text": [
- "\r\n",
- "warning CS1701: En supposant que la référence d'assembly 'Microsoft.AspNetCore.Html.Abstractions, Version=2.2.0.0, Culture=neutral, PublicKeyToken=adb9793829ddae60' utilisée par 'Microsoft.DotNet.Interactive' correspond à l'identité 'Microsoft.AspNetCore.Html.Abstractions, Version=8.0.0.0, Culture=neutral, PublicKeyToken=adb9793829ddae60' de 'Microsoft.AspNetCore.Html.Abstractions', il se peut que vous deviez fournir une stratégie runtime\r\n",
- "\r\n"
- ]
}
],
"source": [
@@ -2783,7 +2985,7 @@
"catch { /* Ignorer les erreurs, on veut juste le graphe */ }\n",
"\n",
"// Afficher le graphe de facteurs\n",
- "display(HTML(FactorGraphHelper.GetLatestFactorGraphHtml(900)));"
+ "FactorGraphHelper.GetLatestFactorGraphHtml(900).DisplayAs(\"text/html\");"
]
},
{
@@ -2791,10 +2993,10 @@
"id": "71adeaf1",
"metadata": {
"papermill": {
- "duration": 0.021193,
- "end_time": "2026-06-04T06:32:29.722165",
+ "duration": 0.030778,
+ "end_time": "2026-09-23T07:16:28.317063",
"exception": false,
- "start_time": "2026-06-04T06:32:29.700972",
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:16:28.286285",
"status": "completed"
},
"tags": []
@@ -2833,16 +3035,16 @@
"language": "csharp"
},
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- "iopub.execute_input": "2026-07-15T01:33:10.403974Z",
- "iopub.status.busy": "2026-07-15T01:33:10.403778Z",
- "iopub.status.idle": "2026-07-15T01:33:10.436219Z",
- "shell.execute_reply": "2026-07-15T01:33:10.429010Z"
+ "iopub.execute_input": "2026-09-23T07:16:28.388139Z",
+ "iopub.status.busy": "2026-09-23T07:16:28.386462Z",
+ "iopub.status.idle": "2026-09-23T07:16:28.509568Z",
+ "shell.execute_reply": "2026-09-23T07:16:28.496683Z"
},
"papermill": {
- "duration": 0.191269,
- "end_time": "2026-06-04T06:32:29.926688",
+ "duration": 0.163875,
+ "end_time": "2026-09-23T07:16:28.509568",
"exception": false,
- "start_time": "2026-06-04T06:32:29.735419",
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:16:28.345693",
"status": "completed"
},
"tags": []
@@ -3241,10 +3443,10 @@
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"metadata": {
"papermill": {
- "duration": 0.018742,
- "end_time": "2026-06-04T06:32:29.962718",
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"exception": false,
- "start_time": "2026-06-04T06:32:29.943976",
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:16:28.524555",
"status": "completed"
},
"tags": []
@@ -3287,10 +3489,10 @@
"id": "eeaf7486",
"metadata": {
"papermill": {
- "duration": 0.023141,
- "end_time": "2026-06-04T06:32:30.001414",
+ "duration": 0.018351,
+ "end_time": "2026-09-23T07:16:28.677284",
"exception": false,
- "start_time": "2026-06-04T06:32:29.978273",
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:16:28.658933",
"status": "completed"
},
"tags": []
@@ -3315,10 +3517,10 @@
"id": "fad677ae",
"metadata": {
"papermill": {
- "duration": 0.02027,
- "end_time": "2026-06-04T06:32:30.059286",
+ "duration": 0.014484,
+ "end_time": "2026-09-23T07:16:28.708276",
"exception": false,
- "start_time": "2026-06-04T06:32:30.039016",
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:16:28.693792",
"status": "completed"
},
"tags": []
@@ -3345,16 +3547,16 @@
"language": "csharp"
},
"execution": {
- "iopub.execute_input": "2026-07-15T01:33:10.437533Z",
- "iopub.status.busy": "2026-07-15T01:33:10.437366Z",
- "iopub.status.idle": "2026-07-15T01:33:10.450608Z",
- "shell.execute_reply": "2026-07-15T01:33:10.450465Z"
+ "iopub.execute_input": "2026-09-23T07:16:28.743536Z",
+ "iopub.status.busy": "2026-09-23T07:16:28.742995Z",
+ "iopub.status.idle": "2026-09-23T07:16:28.782315Z",
+ "shell.execute_reply": "2026-09-23T07:16:28.782315Z"
},
"papermill": {
- "duration": 0.080704,
- "end_time": "2026-06-04T06:32:30.173765",
+ "duration": 0.057521,
+ "end_time": "2026-09-23T07:16:28.782315",
"exception": false,
- "start_time": "2026-06-04T06:32:30.093061",
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:16:28.724794",
"status": "completed"
},
"tags": []
@@ -3420,10 +3622,10 @@
"id": "a627728b",
"metadata": {
"papermill": {
- "duration": 0.05233,
- "end_time": "2026-06-04T06:32:30.244612",
+ "duration": 0.026949,
+ "end_time": "2026-09-23T07:16:28.820684",
"exception": false,
- "start_time": "2026-06-04T06:32:30.192282",
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:16:28.793735",
"status": "completed"
},
"tags": []
@@ -3444,10 +3646,10 @@
"id": "915c4277",
"metadata": {
"papermill": {
- "duration": 0.028235,
- "end_time": "2026-06-04T06:32:30.306441",
+ "duration": 0.017235,
+ "end_time": "2026-09-23T07:16:28.864654",
"exception": false,
- "start_time": "2026-06-04T06:32:30.278206",
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:16:28.847419",
"status": "completed"
},
"tags": []
@@ -3495,6 +3697,20 @@
}
],
"metadata": {
+ "cost": {
+ "api_provider": "none",
+ "api_usd_est": 0.0,
+ "cpu_min": 5,
+ "external_account": null,
+ "free_alternative": null,
+ "gpu_required": false,
+ "metadata_written": null,
+ "network": false,
+ "notes": "Local execution via Infer.NET (Microsoft.Research.MachineLearning) probabilistic programming. Deterministic inference engines (Expectation Propagation / Variational Message Passing) converge to fixed points given the same model, data and seed. Requires .NET Interactive kernel + Infer.NET package installed. Execution is deterministic.",
+ "reduced_pedagogical": null,
+ "reproducibility": "HIGH",
+ "validator": "manual"
+ },
"kernelspec": {
"display_name": ".NET (C#)",
"language": "C#",
@@ -3505,18 +3721,18 @@
"mimetype": "text/x-csharp",
"name": "C#",
"pygments_lexer": "csharp",
- "version": "12.0"
+ "version": "13.0"
},
"papermill": {
"default_parameters": {},
- "duration": 14.211386,
- "end_time": "2026-06-04T06:32:30.697623",
+ "duration": 11.256289,
+ "end_time": "2026-09-23T07:16:29.130051",
"environment_variables": {},
"exception": null,
- "input_path": "MyIA.AI.Notebooks\\Probas\\Infer\\Infer-7-Expert-Systems.ipynb",
- "output_path": "MyIA.AI.Notebooks\\Probas\\Infer\\Infer-7-Expert-Systems.ipynb",
+ "input_path": "DecInfer-07-Expert-Systems.ipynb",
+ "output_path": "DecInfer-07-Expert-Systems.ipynb",
"parameters": {},
- "start_time": "2026-06-04T06:32:16.486237",
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:16:17.873762",
"version": "2.6.0"
},
"polyglot_notebook": {
@@ -3530,22 +3746,8 @@
}
]
}
- },
- "cost": {
- "api_usd_est": 0.0,
- "api_provider": "none",
- "cpu_min": 5,
- "gpu_required": false,
- "network": false,
- "external_account": null,
- "free_alternative": null,
- "reduced_pedagogical": null,
- "reproducibility": "HIGH",
- "metadata_written": null,
- "validator": "manual",
- "notes": "Local execution via Infer.NET (Microsoft.Research.MachineLearning) probabilistic programming. Deterministic inference engines (Expectation Propagation / Variational Message Passing) converge to fixed points given the same model, data and seed. Requires .NET Interactive kernel + Infer.NET package installed. Execution is deterministic."
}
},
"nbformat": 4,
"nbformat_minor": 5
-}
+}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/MyIA.AI.Notebooks/Probas/DecisionTheory/DecInfer/DecInfer-08-Sequential.ipynb b/MyIA.AI.Notebooks/Probas/DecisionTheory/DecInfer/DecInfer-08-Sequential.ipynb
index 1131d97364..b28bd113bf 100644
--- a/MyIA.AI.Notebooks/Probas/DecisionTheory/DecInfer/DecInfer-08-Sequential.ipynb
+++ b/MyIA.AI.Notebooks/Probas/DecisionTheory/DecInfer/DecInfer-08-Sequential.ipynb
@@ -5,10 +5,10 @@
"id": "30265789",
"metadata": {
"papermill": {
- "duration": 0.005108,
- "end_time": "2026-06-22T19:19:33.522961",
+ "duration": 0.007282,
+ "end_time": "2026-09-23T07:16:32.548082",
"exception": false,
- "start_time": "2026-06-22T19:19:33.517853",
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:16:32.540800",
"status": "completed"
},
"tags": []
@@ -48,10 +48,10 @@
"id": "3d6c1abe",
"metadata": {
"papermill": {
- "duration": 0.004103,
- "end_time": "2026-06-22T19:19:33.531710",
+ "duration": 0.007051,
+ "end_time": "2026-09-23T07:16:32.562062",
"exception": false,
- "start_time": "2026-06-22T19:19:33.527607",
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:16:32.555011",
"status": "completed"
},
"tags": []
@@ -90,16 +90,16 @@
"language": "csharp"
},
"execution": {
- "iopub.execute_input": "2026-07-24T18:47:23.486849Z",
- "iopub.status.busy": "2026-07-24T18:47:23.479158Z",
- "iopub.status.idle": "2026-07-24T18:47:27.942135Z",
- "shell.execute_reply": "2026-07-24T18:47:27.935811Z"
+ "iopub.execute_input": "2026-09-23T07:16:32.585283Z",
+ "iopub.status.busy": "2026-09-23T07:16:32.579540Z",
+ "iopub.status.idle": "2026-09-23T07:16:35.737593Z",
+ "shell.execute_reply": "2026-09-23T07:16:35.732338Z"
},
"papermill": {
- "duration": 2.582031,
- "end_time": "2026-06-22T19:19:36.117412",
+ "duration": 3.168383,
+ "end_time": "2026-09-23T07:16:35.737593",
"exception": false,
- "start_time": "2026-06-22T19:19:33.535381",
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:16:32.569210",
"status": "completed"
},
"tags": []
@@ -114,6 +114,7 @@
" The below script needs to be able to find the current output cell; this is an easy method to get it.\r\n",
" \r\n",
" \r\n",
@@ -246,10 +255,10 @@
"id": "d80d59f8",
"metadata": {
"papermill": {
- "duration": 0.009112,
- "end_time": "2026-06-22T19:19:36.134527",
+ "duration": 0.007135,
+ "end_time": "2026-09-23T07:16:35.751706",
"exception": false,
- "start_time": "2026-06-22T19:19:36.125415",
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:16:35.744571",
"status": "completed"
},
"tags": []
@@ -270,19 +279,19 @@
"id": "2ab4cddc",
"metadata": {
"execution": {
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- "iopub.status.idle": "2026-07-24T18:47:28.971946Z",
- "shell.execute_reply": "2026-07-24T18:47:28.971642Z"
+ "iopub.execute_input": "2026-09-23T07:16:35.766059Z",
+ "iopub.status.busy": "2026-09-23T07:16:35.766059Z",
+ "iopub.status.idle": "2026-09-23T07:16:36.614468Z",
+ "shell.execute_reply": "2026-09-23T07:16:36.614468Z"
},
"language_info": {
"name": "polyglot-notebook"
},
"papermill": {
- "duration": 0.628594,
- "end_time": "2026-06-22T19:19:36.772534",
+ "duration": 0.855556,
+ "end_time": "2026-09-23T07:16:36.614468",
"exception": false,
- "start_time": "2026-06-22T19:19:36.143940",
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:16:35.758912",
"status": "completed"
},
"polyglot_notebook": {
@@ -322,10 +331,10 @@
"id": "101c5555",
"metadata": {
"papermill": {
- "duration": 0.008001,
- "end_time": "2026-06-22T19:19:36.789534",
+ "duration": 0.012021,
+ "end_time": "2026-09-23T07:16:36.640402",
"exception": false,
- "start_time": "2026-06-22T19:19:36.781533",
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:16:36.628381",
"status": "completed"
},
"tags": []
@@ -343,10 +352,10 @@
"id": "55762f40",
"metadata": {
"papermill": {
- "duration": 0.008,
- "end_time": "2026-06-22T19:19:36.805560",
+ "duration": 0.023314,
+ "end_time": "2026-09-23T07:16:36.663716",
"exception": false,
- "start_time": "2026-06-22T19:19:36.797560",
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:16:36.640402",
"status": "completed"
},
"tags": []
@@ -382,16 +391,16 @@
"language": "csharp"
},
"execution": {
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- "iopub.status.idle": "2026-07-24T18:47:29.224623Z",
- "shell.execute_reply": "2026-07-24T18:47:29.224372Z"
+ "iopub.execute_input": "2026-09-23T07:16:36.683177Z",
+ "iopub.status.busy": "2026-09-23T07:16:36.683177Z",
+ "iopub.status.idle": "2026-09-23T07:16:36.976594Z",
+ "shell.execute_reply": "2026-09-23T07:16:36.975581Z"
},
"papermill": {
- "duration": 0.195742,
- "end_time": "2026-06-22T19:19:37.008930",
+ "duration": 0.304412,
+ "end_time": "2026-09-23T07:16:36.976594",
"exception": false,
- "start_time": "2026-06-22T19:19:36.813188",
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:16:36.672182",
"status": "completed"
},
"tags": []
@@ -531,10 +540,10 @@
"id": "ce2979c2",
"metadata": {
"papermill": {
- "duration": 0.007999,
- "end_time": "2026-06-22T19:19:37.025455",
+ "duration": 0.019366,
+ "end_time": "2026-09-23T07:16:37.012698",
"exception": false,
- "start_time": "2026-06-22T19:19:37.017456",
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:16:36.993332",
"status": "completed"
},
"tags": []
@@ -577,7 +586,16 @@
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"id": "infer8-mermaid-bellman",
- "metadata": {},
+ "metadata": {
+ "papermill": {
+ "duration": 0.042025,
+ "end_time": "2026-09-23T07:16:37.077004",
+ "exception": false,
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:16:37.034979",
+ "status": "completed"
+ },
+ "tags": []
+ },
"source": [
"Le même **backup**, rendu sous forme de graphe : l'état `s` interroge chaque action,\n",
"chaque action moyenne les valeurs des états successeurs pondérées par leur probabilité de\n",
@@ -618,10 +636,10 @@
"id": "07f88d10",
"metadata": {
"papermill": {
- "duration": 0.00878,
- "end_time": "2026-06-22T19:19:37.043293",
+ "duration": 0.01374,
+ "end_time": "2026-09-23T07:16:37.116738",
"exception": false,
- "start_time": "2026-06-22T19:19:37.034513",
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:16:37.102998",
"status": "completed"
},
"tags": []
@@ -655,10 +673,10 @@
"id": "ecf27939",
"metadata": {
"papermill": {
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- "end_time": "2026-06-22T19:19:37.059770",
+ "duration": 0.012265,
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"exception": false,
- "start_time": "2026-06-22T19:19:37.052069",
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:16:37.131942",
"status": "completed"
},
"tags": []
@@ -712,10 +730,10 @@
"id": "c7fbc315",
"metadata": {
"papermill": {
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"exception": false,
- "start_time": "2026-06-22T19:19:37.068001",
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:16:37.158959",
"status": "completed"
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"tags": []
@@ -742,10 +760,10 @@
"id": "f20ff207",
"metadata": {
"papermill": {
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"exception": false,
- "start_time": "2026-06-22T19:19:37.084427",
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:16:37.177288",
"status": "completed"
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"tags": []
@@ -797,16 +815,16 @@
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- "shell.execute_reply": "2026-07-24T18:47:29.431215Z"
+ "iopub.execute_input": "2026-09-23T07:16:37.202047Z",
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"papermill": {
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@@ -1160,10 +1178,10 @@
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"metadata": {
"papermill": {
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"exception": false,
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+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:16:37.362206",
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@@ -1196,10 +1214,10 @@
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"metadata": {
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"exception": false,
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"tags": []
@@ -1253,16 +1271,16 @@
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@@ -4662,19 +4689,19 @@
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- "shell.execute_reply": "2026-07-24T18:47:35.128466Z"
+ "iopub.execute_input": "2026-09-23T07:16:42.785228Z",
+ "iopub.status.busy": "2026-09-23T07:16:42.785228Z",
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+ "shell.execute_reply": "2026-09-23T07:16:42.831144Z"
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"name": "polyglot-notebook"
},
"papermill": {
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+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:16:42.771011",
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@@ -4715,10 +4742,10 @@
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@@ -4792,14 +4819,14 @@
},
"papermill": {
"default_parameters": {},
- "duration": 10.183016,
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+ "duration": 12.713684,
+ "end_time": "2026-09-23T07:16:43.020159",
"environment_variables": {},
"exception": null,
"input_path": "DecInfer-08-Sequential.ipynb",
"output_path": "DecInfer-08-Sequential.ipynb",
"parameters": {},
- "start_time": "2026-06-22T19:19:31.932075",
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:16:30.306475",
"version": "2.6.0"
},
"polyglot_notebook": {
@@ -4817,4 +4844,4 @@
},
"nbformat": 4,
"nbformat_minor": 5
-}
+}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/MyIA.AI.Notebooks/Probas/DecisionTheory/DecInfer/DecInfer-10-Thompson-Sampling.ipynb b/MyIA.AI.Notebooks/Probas/DecisionTheory/DecInfer/DecInfer-10-Thompson-Sampling.ipynb
index d061821efb..18c57817ed 100644
--- a/MyIA.AI.Notebooks/Probas/DecisionTheory/DecInfer/DecInfer-10-Thompson-Sampling.ipynb
+++ b/MyIA.AI.Notebooks/Probas/DecisionTheory/DecInfer/DecInfer-10-Thompson-Sampling.ipynb
@@ -5,10 +5,10 @@
"id": "cell-065982ec",
"metadata": {
"papermill": {
- "duration": 0.005603,
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+ "end_time": "2026-09-23T07:20:15.954405",
"exception": false,
- "start_time": "2026-07-31T19:52:05.416452",
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:20:15.945218",
"status": "completed"
},
"tags": []
@@ -44,10 +44,10 @@
"id": "cell-e1a1df7a",
"metadata": {
"papermill": {
- "duration": 0.00355,
- "end_time": "2026-07-31T19:52:05.431391",
+ "duration": 0.009637,
+ "end_time": "2026-09-23T07:20:15.972048",
"exception": false,
- "start_time": "2026-07-31T19:52:05.427841",
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:20:15.962411",
"status": "completed"
},
"tags": []
@@ -80,10 +80,10 @@
"id": "cell-cf83f140",
"metadata": {
"papermill": {
- "duration": 0.002369,
- "end_time": "2026-07-31T19:52:05.436386",
+ "duration": 0.007477,
+ "end_time": "2026-09-23T07:20:15.987917",
"exception": false,
- "start_time": "2026-07-31T19:52:05.434017",
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:20:15.980440",
"status": "completed"
},
"tags": []
@@ -100,39 +100,151 @@
"id": "cell-eb337d48",
"metadata": {
"execution": {
- "iopub.execute_input": "2026-07-31T19:52:05.450439Z",
- "iopub.status.busy": "2026-07-31T19:52:05.444626Z",
- "iopub.status.idle": "2026-07-31T19:52:08.585109Z",
- "shell.execute_reply": "2026-07-31T19:52:08.580921Z"
+ "iopub.execute_input": "2026-09-23T07:20:16.027937Z",
+ "iopub.status.busy": "2026-09-23T07:20:16.024929Z",
+ "iopub.status.idle": "2026-09-23T07:20:19.936093Z",
+ "shell.execute_reply": "2026-09-23T07:20:19.927299Z"
},
"papermill": {
- "duration": 3.146266,
- "end_time": "2026-07-31T19:52:08.585214",
+ "duration": 3.939171,
+ "end_time": "2026-09-23T07:20:19.936843",
"exception": false,
- "start_time": "2026-07-31T19:52:05.438948",
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:20:15.997672",
"status": "completed"
},
"tags": []
},
"outputs": [
{
- "output_type": "display_data",
"data": {
- "text/html": ""
+ "text/html": [
+ "\r\n",
+ "
\r\n",
+ "
\r\n",
+ " The below script needs to be able to find the current output cell; this is an easy method to get it.\r\n",
+ "
\r\n",
+ " \r\n",
+ "
"
+ ]
},
- "metadata": {}
+ "metadata": {},
+ "output_type": "display_data"
},
{
- "output_type": "display_data",
"data": {
- "text/html": "
Installing Packages- Microsoft.ML.Probabilistic
- Microsoft.ML.Probabilistic.Compiler
"
+ "text/html": [
+ "
Installed Packages- Microsoft.ML.Probabilistic, 0.4.2504.701
- Microsoft.ML.Probabilistic.Compiler, 0.4.2504.701
"
+ ]
},
- "metadata": {}
+ "metadata": {},
+ "output_type": "display_data"
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Infer.NET charge.\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Infer.NET charge.\r\n"
+ ]
}
],
"source": [
@@ -151,10 +263,10 @@
"id": "cell-45c5e1c5",
"metadata": {
"papermill": {
- "duration": 0.002833,
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"exception": false,
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+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:20:19.945863",
"status": "completed"
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"tags": []
@@ -169,30 +281,34 @@
"id": "cell-b0f29d4f",
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- "iopub.status.idle": "2026-07-31T19:52:09.260742Z",
- "shell.execute_reply": "2026-07-31T19:52:09.260541Z"
+ "iopub.execute_input": "2026-09-23T07:20:19.975211Z",
+ "iopub.status.busy": "2026-09-23T07:20:19.975211Z",
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+ "shell.execute_reply": "2026-09-23T07:20:21.287564Z"
},
"papermill": {
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"exception": false,
- "start_time": "2026-07-31T19:52:08.593513",
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:20:19.964737",
"status": "completed"
},
"tags": []
},
"outputs": [
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "FactorGraphHelper charge.\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "FactorGraphHelper charge.\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Graphviz disponible : True\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Graphviz disponible : True\r\n"
+ ]
}
],
"source": [
@@ -206,10 +322,10 @@
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"metadata": {
"papermill": {
- "duration": 0.003539,
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"exception": false,
- "start_time": "2026-07-31T19:52:09.265333",
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:20:21.299823",
"status": "completed"
},
"tags": []
@@ -231,40 +347,48 @@
"id": "cell-0629643f",
"metadata": {
"execution": {
- "iopub.execute_input": "2026-07-31T19:52:09.278136Z",
- "iopub.status.busy": "2026-07-31T19:52:09.277696Z",
- "iopub.status.idle": "2026-07-31T19:52:10.745823Z",
- "shell.execute_reply": "2026-07-31T19:52:10.745691Z"
+ "iopub.execute_input": "2026-09-23T07:20:21.336551Z",
+ "iopub.status.busy": "2026-09-23T07:20:21.336551Z",
+ "iopub.status.idle": "2026-09-23T07:20:24.044712Z",
+ "shell.execute_reply": "2026-09-23T07:20:24.044121Z"
},
"papermill": {
- "duration": 1.473998,
- "end_time": "2026-07-31T19:52:10.745887",
+ "duration": 2.723421,
+ "end_time": "2026-09-23T07:20:24.044712",
"exception": false,
- "start_time": "2026-07-31T19:52:09.271889",
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:20:21.321291",
"status": "completed"
},
"tags": []
},
"outputs": [
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Apres 7 succes / 3 echecs :\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Apres 7 succes / 3 echecs :\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": " Posterior Infer.NET = Beta(8,0, 4,0) ; mean = 0,667\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ " Posterior Infer.NET = Beta(8,0, 4,0) ; mean = 0,667\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": " Formule conjuguee = Beta(8, 4) ; mean = 0,667\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ " Formule conjuguee = Beta(8, 4) ; mean = 0,667\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": " => Le moteur recouvre la forme analytique (cas conjugue favorable).\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ " => Le moteur recouvre la forme analytique (cas conjugue favorable).\r\n"
+ ]
}
],
"source": [
@@ -294,10 +418,10 @@
"id": "cell-2a769548",
"metadata": {
"papermill": {
- "duration": 0.002571,
- "end_time": "2026-07-31T19:52:10.751430",
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"exception": false,
- "start_time": "2026-07-31T19:52:10.748859",
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:20:24.053887",
"status": "completed"
},
"tags": []
@@ -314,37 +438,111 @@
"id": "cell-702b3d96",
"metadata": {
"execution": {
- "iopub.execute_input": "2026-07-31T19:52:10.758273Z",
- "iopub.status.busy": "2026-07-31T19:52:10.757926Z",
- "iopub.status.idle": "2026-07-31T19:52:11.076382Z",
- "shell.execute_reply": "2026-07-31T19:52:11.076480Z"
+ "iopub.execute_input": "2026-09-23T07:20:24.082918Z",
+ "iopub.status.busy": "2026-09-23T07:20:24.082918Z",
+ "iopub.status.idle": "2026-09-23T07:20:25.478009Z",
+ "shell.execute_reply": "2026-09-23T07:20:25.478009Z"
},
"papermill": {
- "duration": 0.322511,
- "end_time": "2026-07-31T19:52:11.076546",
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+ "end_time": "2026-09-23T07:20:25.478009",
"exception": false,
- "start_time": "2026-07-31T19:52:10.754035",
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:20:24.073126",
"status": "completed"
},
"tags": []
},
"outputs": [
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Modele Beta-Bernoulli : theta (Beta) -> 6 facteurs Bernoulli (un par tirage observe).\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Modele Beta-Bernoulli : theta (Beta) -> 6 facteurs Bernoulli (un par tirage observe).\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "display_data",
"data": {
- "text/html": "\r\n
\r\n
Model_08_19_26_03_11_19_98.svg
\r\n
\r\n \r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n
\r\n\r\n
\r\n
"
+ "text/html": [
+ "\n",
+ "
\n",
+ "
Model_09_23_26_09_20_24_20.svg
\n",
+ "
\n",
+ " \r\n",
+ "\r\n",
+ "\r\n",
+ "\r\n",
+ "
\r\n",
+ "\n",
+ "
\n",
+ "
"
+ ]
},
- "metadata": {}
- },
- {
- "output_type": "stream",
- "name": "stderr",
- "text": "\r\nwarning CS1701: En supposant que la référence d'assembly 'Microsoft.AspNetCore.Html.Abstractions, Version=2.2.0.0, Culture=neutral, PublicKeyToken=adb9793829ddae60' utilisée par 'Microsoft.DotNet.Interactive' correspond à l'identité 'Microsoft.AspNetCore.Html.Abstractions, Version=9.0.0.0, Culture=neutral, PublicKeyToken=adb9793829ddae60' de 'Microsoft.AspNetCore.Html.Abstractions', il se peut que vous deviez fournir une stratégie runtime\r\n\r\n"
+ "metadata": {},
+ "output_type": "display_data"
}
],
"source": [
@@ -359,7 +557,7 @@
"engFG.ShowFactorGraph = true;\n",
"var _fg = engFG.Infer
(thetaFG);\n",
"Console.WriteLine(\"Modele Beta-Bernoulli : theta (Beta) -> 6 facteurs Bernoulli (un par tirage observe).\");\n",
- "display(HTML(FactorGraphHelper.GetLatestFactorGraphHtml()));"
+ "FactorGraphHelper.GetLatestFactorGraphHtml().DisplayAs(\"text/html\");"
]
},
{
@@ -367,10 +565,10 @@
"id": "cell-50c9bbca",
"metadata": {
"papermill": {
- "duration": 0.004052,
- "end_time": "2026-07-31T19:52:11.083920",
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+ "end_time": "2026-09-23T07:20:25.494499",
"exception": false,
- "start_time": "2026-07-31T19:52:11.079868",
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:20:25.487253",
"status": "completed"
},
"tags": []
@@ -387,60 +585,76 @@
"id": "cell-5884b7f3",
"metadata": {
"execution": {
- "iopub.execute_input": "2026-07-31T19:52:11.098178Z",
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- "iopub.status.idle": "2026-07-31T19:52:12.008598Z",
- "shell.execute_reply": "2026-07-31T19:52:12.008402Z"
+ "iopub.execute_input": "2026-09-23T07:20:25.516282Z",
+ "iopub.status.busy": "2026-09-23T07:20:25.515161Z",
+ "iopub.status.idle": "2026-09-23T07:20:27.078553Z",
+ "shell.execute_reply": "2026-09-23T07:20:27.078037Z"
},
"papermill": {
- "duration": 0.919002,
- "end_time": "2026-07-31T19:52:12.008661",
+ "duration": 1.572796,
+ "end_time": "2026-09-23T07:20:27.078553",
"exception": false,
- "start_time": "2026-07-31T19:52:11.089659",
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:20:25.505757",
"status": "completed"
},
"tags": []
},
"outputs": [
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Vraie moyenne du bras = 0,70 (inconnue de l algorithme)\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Vraie moyenne du bras = 0,70 (inconnue de l algorithme)\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": " N tirages | posterior mean | ic 95% (approx)\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ " N tirages | posterior mean | ic 95% (approx)\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": " ------------------------------------------\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ " ------------------------------------------\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": " 5 | 0,857 | [0,615, 1,000]\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ " 5 | 0,857 | [0,615, 1,000]\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": " 20 | 0,727 | [0,545, 0,909]\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ " 20 | 0,727 | [0,545, 0,909]\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": " 50 | 0,769 | [0,656, 0,883]\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ " 50 | 0,769 | [0,656, 0,883]\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": " 200 | 0,663 | [0,598, 0,728]\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ " 200 | 0,663 | [0,598, 0,728]\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": " => Le posterior se resserre autour de la vraie moyenne quand N croit.\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ " => Le posterior se resserre autour de la vraie moyenne quand N croit.\r\n"
+ ]
}
],
"source": [
@@ -474,7 +688,16 @@
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"id": "cell-di10-interp-a",
- "metadata": {},
+ "metadata": {
+ "papermill": {
+ "duration": 0.009703,
+ "end_time": "2026-09-23T07:20:27.099078",
+ "exception": false,
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:20:27.089375",
+ "status": "completed"
+ },
+ "tags": []
+ },
"source": [
"### Lecture du résultat : le posterior se resserre au rythme des données\n",
"\n",
@@ -491,10 +714,10 @@
"id": "cell-15063fa1",
"metadata": {
"papermill": {
- "duration": 0.00292,
- "end_time": "2026-07-31T19:52:12.014913",
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+ "end_time": "2026-09-23T07:20:27.118244",
"exception": false,
- "start_time": "2026-07-31T19:52:12.011993",
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:20:27.108859",
"status": "completed"
},
"tags": []
@@ -513,25 +736,27 @@
"id": "cell-775a0d0a",
"metadata": {
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- "shell.execute_reply": "2026-07-31T19:52:12.080837Z"
+ "iopub.execute_input": "2026-09-23T07:20:27.139099Z",
+ "iopub.status.busy": "2026-09-23T07:20:27.139099Z",
+ "iopub.status.idle": "2026-09-23T07:20:27.236178Z",
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},
"papermill": {
- "duration": 0.063262,
- "end_time": "2026-07-31T19:52:12.081029",
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+ "end_time": "2026-09-23T07:20:27.236909",
"exception": false,
- "start_time": "2026-07-31T19:52:12.017767",
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:20:27.128086",
"status": "completed"
},
"tags": []
},
"outputs": [
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Classe BayesArm definie (modele masque, moteur reutilise).\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Classe BayesArm definie (modele masque, moteur reutilise).\r\n"
+ ]
}
],
"source": [
@@ -588,10 +813,10 @@
"id": "c3757d65",
"metadata": {
"papermill": {
- "duration": 0.002994,
- "end_time": "2026-07-31T19:52:12.087561",
+ "duration": 0.009001,
+ "end_time": "2026-09-23T07:20:27.255445",
"exception": false,
- "start_time": "2026-07-31T19:52:12.084567",
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:20:27.246444",
"status": "completed"
},
"tags": []
@@ -608,35 +833,41 @@
"id": "46507dc2",
"metadata": {
"execution": {
- "iopub.execute_input": "2026-07-31T19:52:12.094449Z",
- "iopub.status.busy": "2026-07-31T19:52:12.094273Z",
- "iopub.status.idle": "2026-07-31T19:52:12.378985Z",
- "shell.execute_reply": "2026-07-31T19:52:12.378697Z"
+ "iopub.execute_input": "2026-09-23T07:20:27.275576Z",
+ "iopub.status.busy": "2026-09-23T07:20:27.275576Z",
+ "iopub.status.idle": "2026-09-23T07:20:27.693589Z",
+ "shell.execute_reply": "2026-09-23T07:20:27.693589Z"
},
"papermill": {
- "duration": 0.288605,
- "end_time": "2026-07-31T19:52:12.379084",
+ "duration": 0.430036,
+ "end_time": "2026-09-23T07:20:27.694571",
"exception": false,
- "start_time": "2026-07-31T19:52:12.090479",
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:20:27.264535",
"status": "completed"
},
"tags": []
},
"outputs": [
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Compilation (1 fois, warmup BayesArm) : 444,5 ms\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Compilation (1 fois, warmup BayesArm) : 350,5 ms\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Re-inference (ObservedValue, compile reutilise) : 0,040 ms en moyenne sur 200 appels\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Re-inference (ObservedValue, compile reutilise) : 0,044 ms en moyenne sur 200 appels\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Ratio compilation / re-inference : 11243x\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Ratio compilation / re-inference : 7953x\r\n"
+ ]
}
],
"source": [
@@ -664,11 +895,20 @@
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"id": "cell-di10-interp-b",
- "metadata": {},
+ "metadata": {
+ "papermill": {
+ "duration": 0.013219,
+ "end_time": "2026-09-23T07:20:27.723216",
+ "exception": false,
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:20:27.709997",
+ "status": "completed"
+ },
+ "tags": []
+ },
"source": [
"### Lecture du résultat : pourquoi le moteur compilé change tout\n",
"\n",
- "> **Note méthodologique — séparation structurel / machine-dep** : le **rapport** entre le coût d'une compilation et celui d'une re-inférence sur modèle déjà compilé est un **invariant structurel** d'Infer.NET (plusieurs ordres de grandeur, mesuré à **>10000×** en §4.1 cellule suivante). En revanche, les **durées absolues** (compilation en centaines de ms, re-inférence en centièmes de ms) sont **machine-dépendantes** par construction (CPU, JIT, GC, version Infer.NET) et **ne survivent pas** à une ré-exécution sur une autre machine — c'est précisément la pathologie que l'umbrella #9434/#8052/#9377 demande de **drainer** plutôt que de re-épingler. La cellule de calcul §4.1 (juste en dessous) reste intacte et exécutable localement : l'étudiant peut y observer ses propres timings sur sa machine et **vérifier** que le rapport (structurel) reste >10000× même quand les valeurs absolues changent.\n",
+ "> **Note méthodologique — séparation structurel / machine-dep** : le **rapport** entre le coût d'une compilation et celui d'une re-inférence sur modèle déjà compilé est un **invariant structurel** d'Infer.NET (plusieurs ordres de grandeur : de l'ordre de **10⁴×** dans la mesure du §4.1 ci-dessus). En revanche, les **durées absolues** (compilation en centaines de ms, re-inférence en centièmes de ms) sont **machine-dépendantes** par construction (CPU, JIT, GC, version Infer.NET) et **ne survivent pas** à une ré-exécution sur une autre machine — c'est précisément la pathologie que l'umbrella #9434/#8052/#9377 demande de **drainer** plutôt que de re-épingler. La cellule de calcul §4.1 (juste au-dessus) reste intacte et exécutable localement : l'étudiant peut y observer ses propres timings sur sa machine et **vérifier** que le rapport (structurel) garde son ordre de grandeur même quand les valeurs absolues changent. Le rapport lui-même fluctue d'une exécution à l'autre, puisque ses deux termes sont des durées : un seuil exact comme « >10000× » ne se lirait donc pas de façon stable, seul l'ordre de grandeur le fait.\n",
"\n",
"Infer.NET suit le modèle « compiler une fois, inférer souvent » : la première inférence génère du code spécialisé pour le graphe de facteurs, les suivantes se contentent d'observer de nouvelles données et de relancer l'inférence sur ce code déjà compilé. C'est la **différence structurelle** entre un moteur probabiliste compilé et un échantillonneur générique qui repartirait de zéro à chaque question.\n"
]
@@ -678,10 +918,10 @@
"id": "cell-5ce3ed6d",
"metadata": {
"papermill": {
- "duration": 0.004701,
- "end_time": "2026-07-31T19:52:12.388439",
+ "duration": 0.011659,
+ "end_time": "2026-09-23T07:20:27.747316",
"exception": false,
- "start_time": "2026-07-31T19:52:12.383738",
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:20:27.735657",
"status": "completed"
},
"tags": []
@@ -703,95 +943,125 @@
"id": "cell-6acb9561",
"metadata": {
"execution": {
- "iopub.execute_input": "2026-07-31T19:52:12.400566Z",
- "iopub.status.busy": "2026-07-31T19:52:12.400374Z",
- "iopub.status.idle": "2026-07-31T19:52:13.108116Z",
- "shell.execute_reply": "2026-07-31T19:52:13.108001Z"
+ "iopub.execute_input": "2026-09-23T07:20:27.771510Z",
+ "iopub.status.busy": "2026-09-23T07:20:27.770981Z",
+ "iopub.status.idle": "2026-09-23T07:20:28.959566Z",
+ "shell.execute_reply": "2026-09-23T07:20:28.959566Z"
},
"papermill": {
- "duration": 0.714273,
- "end_time": "2026-07-31T19:52:13.108176",
+ "duration": 1.201729,
+ "end_time": "2026-09-23T07:20:28.959566",
"exception": false,
- "start_time": "2026-07-31T19:52:12.393903",
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:20:27.757837",
"status": "completed"
},
"tags": []
},
"outputs": [
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Bandit : K=3 bras, T=200 pas. (theta* inconnu de l algorithme)\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Bandit : K=3 bras, T=200 pas. (theta* inconnu de l algorithme)\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": " pas | bras joue | recompense | posterior means [b1 b2 b3]\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ " pas | bras joue | recompense | posterior means [b1 b2 b3]\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": " ---------------------------------------------------------------\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ " ---------------------------------------------------------------\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": " 1 | bras 2 | 1 | [0,50 0,67 0,50]\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ " 1 | bras 3 | 1 | [0,50 0,50 0,67]\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": " 2 | bras 2 | 0 | [0,50 0,50 0,50]\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ " 2 | bras 2 | 0 | [0,50 0,33 0,67]\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": " 3 | bras 2 | 0 | [0,50 0,40 0,50]\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ " 3 | bras 3 | 1 | [0,50 0,33 0,75]\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": " 4 | bras 1 | 1 | [0,67 0,40 0,50]\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ " 4 | bras 3 | 1 | [0,50 0,33 0,80]\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": " 5 | bras 1 | 0 | [0,50 0,40 0,50]\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ " 5 | bras 3 | 1 | [0,50 0,33 0,83]\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": " 51 | bras 3 | 1 | [0,33 0,56 0,70]\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ " 51 | bras 1 | 0 | [0,33 0,43 0,70]\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": " 101 | bras 3 | 1 | [0,33 0,59 0,76]\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ " 101 | bras 3 | 1 | [0,33 0,33 0,75]\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": " 200 | bras 3 | 0 | [0,33 0,57 0,78]\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ " 200 | bras 3 | 0 | [0,33 0,33 0,77]\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": " ---------------------------------------------------------------\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ " ---------------------------------------------------------------\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Tirages par bras : [7, 28, 165]\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Tirages par bras : [4, 7, 189]\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Recompense totale = 147/200 (optimal ~ 160)\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Recompense totale = 150/200 (optimal ~ 160)\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "=> Thompson converge vers le bras 3 (le meilleur, theta*=0.8).\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "=> Thompson converge vers le bras 3 (le meilleur, theta*=0.8).\r\n"
+ ]
}
],
"source": [
@@ -802,6 +1072,7 @@
"int MAXN = 220;\n",
"double[] vraiTheta = { 0.2, 0.5, 0.8 };\n",
"var banditRng = new System.Random(7);\n",
+ "Microsoft.ML.Probabilistic.Math.Rand.Restart(7); // Beta.Sample() tire dans Rand, le générateur global d'Infer.NET, pas dans System.Random\n",
"var arms = new BayesArm[K];\n",
"for (int k = 0; k < K; k++) arms[k] = new BayesArm(MAXN);\n",
"int[] tiragesParBras = new int[K];\n",
@@ -835,17 +1106,28 @@
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"id": "cell-di10-interp-c",
- "metadata": {},
+ "metadata": {
+ "papermill": {
+ "duration": 0.010682,
+ "end_time": "2026-09-23T07:20:28.981741",
+ "exception": false,
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:20:28.971059",
+ "status": "completed"
+ },
+ "tags": []
+ },
"source": [
"### Lecture du résultat : la trace d'un run de Thompson\n",
"\n",
- "La sortie raconte l'algorithme pas à pas :\n",
+ "La sortie raconte l'algorithme pas à pas (les moyennes affichées sont celles des posteriors **après** la mise à jour du pas) :\n",
"\n",
- "- **Pas 1** : l'échantillon posterior du bras 2 sort à 0,67 et gagne l'argmax — alors que le bras 3 (vraie moyenne 0,80) n'a encore rien montré. C'est *l'exploration par échantillonnage* : un posterior encore large peut produire un échantillon élevé par pur hasard, et l'algorithme va vérifier.\n",
- "- **Pas 4-5** : le bras 2 déçoit (deux échecs, sa moyenne retombe à 0,40) ; le bras 1 prend le relais deux essais, puis cesse presque d'être joué — **7 tirages seulement** en 200 pas, avec un posterior final de moyenne 0,33 (vraie 0,20) : éliminé tôt, mais jamais définitivement, car un posterior reste une distribution — un échantillon élevé pourrait le faire revenir.\n",
- "- **Pas 51 à 200** : le bras 3 capte l'essentiel des tirages (**165 sur 200**), sa moyenne posterior monte à 0,78 ; les deux autres descendent vers leurs vraies moyennes (0,33 et 0,57).\n",
+ "- **Pas 1** : les trois bras partent du même prior uniforme Beta(1,1). L'échantillon du bras 3 sort le plus haut, par pur hasard, et le bras 3 paie : sa moyenne posterior passe de 0,50 à 0,67.\n",
+ "- **Pas 2** : le bras 2 est sondé à son tour et échoue (moyenne 0,33). C'est *l'exploration par échantillonnage* : un posterior encore large peut produire un échantillon élevé, et l'algorithme va vérifier.\n",
+ "- **Pas 3 à 5** : le bras 3 est rejoué trois fois et paie trois fois (0,75, 0,80 puis 0,83). L'exploitation s'installe après cinq récompenses seulement.\n",
+ "- **Pas 51 et 101** : l'exploration n'est jamais coupée. Au pas 51, le bras 1 est encore essayé (échec, moyenne 0,33). Un posterior reste une distribution : un échantillon élevé peut toujours faire revenir un bras délaissé.\n",
+ "- **Pas 200** : le bras 3 a capté **189 tirages sur 200**, contre 4 pour le bras 1 et 7 pour le bras 2. Sa moyenne posterior (0,77) approche la vraie valeur 0,80. Celles des deux perdants restent toutes deux à 0,33, loin de leurs vraies moyennes (0,20 et 0,50) : Thompson ne cherche pas à bien les estimer, seulement à établir qu'ils ne sont pas les meilleurs.\n",
"\n",
- "Bilan du run : **147 récompenses sur 200**, contre ~160 pour l'oracle qui connaîtrait les vraies moyennes — un regret de run d'environ 13. Toute la compétition exploration/exploitation tient dans cet écart.\n"
+ "Bilan du run : **150 récompenses sur 200**, contre ~160 pour l'oracle qui connaîtrait les vraies moyennes — un regret de run d'environ 10. Toute la compétition exploration/exploitation tient dans cet écart.\n"
]
},
{
@@ -853,10 +1135,10 @@
"id": "cell-6229c611",
"metadata": {
"papermill": {
- "duration": 0.003442,
- "end_time": "2026-07-31T19:52:13.115486",
+ "duration": 0.011078,
+ "end_time": "2026-09-23T07:20:29.002898",
"exception": false,
- "start_time": "2026-07-31T19:52:13.112044",
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:20:28.991820",
"status": "completed"
},
"tags": []
@@ -879,55 +1161,69 @@
"id": "cell-f341dab0",
"metadata": {
"execution": {
- "iopub.execute_input": "2026-07-31T19:52:13.123629Z",
- "iopub.status.busy": "2026-07-31T19:52:13.123447Z",
- "iopub.status.idle": "2026-07-31T19:52:22.914634Z",
- "shell.execute_reply": "2026-07-31T19:52:22.914457Z"
+ "iopub.execute_input": "2026-09-23T07:20:29.024351Z",
+ "iopub.status.busy": "2026-09-23T07:20:29.024351Z",
+ "iopub.status.idle": "2026-09-23T07:20:40.489965Z",
+ "shell.execute_reply": "2026-09-23T07:20:40.489410Z"
},
"papermill": {
- "duration": 9.795845,
- "end_time": "2026-07-31T19:52:22.914702",
+ "duration": 11.476607,
+ "end_time": "2026-09-23T07:20:40.489965",
"exception": false,
- "start_time": "2026-07-31T19:52:13.118857",
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:20:29.013358",
"status": "completed"
},
"tags": []
},
"outputs": [
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Regret cumule moyen sur 15 runs (T=200) :\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Regret cumule moyen sur 15 runs (T=200) :\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": " epsilon-greedy (eps=0,1) : 17,5\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ " epsilon-greedy (eps=0,1) : 17,5\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": " UCB1 : 19,3\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ " UCB1 : 19,3\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": " Thompson (Infer.NET) : 6,1\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ " Thompson (Infer.NET) : 6,1\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "=> Thompson (6,1) <= epsilon-greedy (17,5) : l exploration bayesienne\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "=> Thompson (6,1) <= epsilon-greedy (17,5) : l exploration bayesienne\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": " ciblee par le posterior exploite l incertitude la ou l information manque (Prong-B).\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ " ciblee par le posterior exploite l incertitude la ou l information manque (Prong-B).\r\n"
+ ]
}
],
"source": [
@@ -946,6 +1242,7 @@
"double[] regretFinal = new double[3];\n",
"for (int run = 0; run < N_runs; run++) {\n",
" var rng = new System.Random(100 + run);\n",
+ " Microsoft.ML.Probabilistic.Math.Rand.Restart(100 + run);\n",
" int[] compteEG = new int[K2]; double[] recEG = new double[K2];\n",
" int[] compteUCB = new int[K2]; double[] recUCB = new double[K2];\n",
" // Thompson : 3 BayesArm partages entre runs (reset entre runs, compilation reutilisee)\n",
@@ -996,7 +1293,16 @@
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"id": "cell-di10-interp-d",
- "metadata": {},
+ "metadata": {
+ "papermill": {
+ "duration": 0.011027,
+ "end_time": "2026-09-23T07:20:40.512328",
+ "exception": false,
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:20:40.501301",
+ "status": "completed"
+ },
+ "tags": []
+ },
"source": [
"### Lecture du résultat : Thompson domine les deux baselines\n",
"\n",
@@ -1016,10 +1322,10 @@
"id": "cell-ts-regret-bound-8081",
"metadata": {
"papermill": {
- "duration": 0.004319,
- "end_time": "2026-07-31T19:52:22.923225",
+ "duration": 0.016539,
+ "end_time": "2026-09-23T07:20:40.541083",
"exception": false,
- "start_time": "2026-07-31T19:52:22.918906",
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:20:40.524544",
"status": "completed"
},
"tags": []
@@ -1063,10 +1369,10 @@
"id": "cell-5da4782f",
"metadata": {
"papermill": {
- "duration": 0.006138,
- "end_time": "2026-07-31T19:52:22.933297",
+ "duration": 0.012659,
+ "end_time": "2026-09-23T07:20:40.571284",
"exception": false,
- "start_time": "2026-07-31T19:52:22.927159",
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:20:40.558625",
"status": "completed"
},
"tags": []
@@ -1083,50 +1389,62 @@
"id": "cell-211f6ecf",
"metadata": {
"execution": {
- "iopub.execute_input": "2026-07-31T19:52:22.942579Z",
- "iopub.status.busy": "2026-07-31T19:52:22.942192Z",
- "iopub.status.idle": "2026-07-31T19:52:23.688338Z",
- "shell.execute_reply": "2026-07-31T19:52:23.688193Z"
+ "iopub.execute_input": "2026-09-23T07:20:40.598617Z",
+ "iopub.status.busy": "2026-09-23T07:20:40.598101Z",
+ "iopub.status.idle": "2026-09-23T07:20:41.394405Z",
+ "shell.execute_reply": "2026-09-23T07:20:41.393783Z"
},
"papermill": {
- "duration": 0.751347,
- "end_time": "2026-07-31T19:52:23.688404",
+ "duration": 0.809948,
+ "end_time": "2026-09-23T07:20:41.394405",
"exception": false,
- "start_time": "2026-07-31T19:52:22.937057",
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:20:40.584457",
"status": "completed"
},
"tags": []
},
"outputs": [
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Apres 60 tirages Thompson, estimation P(bras i est le meilleur) sur 2000 echantillons :\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Apres 60 tirages Thompson, estimation P(bras i est le meilleur) sur 2000 echantillons :\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": " bras 1 : P(meilleur) = 0,004 | posterior Beta(2,0,4,0) mean=0,333 (vraie 0,2)\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ " bras 1 : P(meilleur) = 0,011 | posterior Beta(1,0,3,0) mean=0,250 (vraie 0,2)\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": " bras 2 : P(meilleur) = 0,021 | posterior Beta(6,0,5,0) mean=0,545 (vraie 0,5)\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ " bras 2 : P(meilleur) = 0,003 | posterior Beta(4,0,6,0) mean=0,400 (vraie 0,5)\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": " bras 3 : P(meilleur) = 0,975 | posterior Beta(41,0,8,0) mean=0,837 (vraie 0,8)\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ " bras 3 : P(meilleur) = 0,986 | posterior Beta(42,0,10,0) mean=0,808 (vraie 0,8)\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "=> Bras declare meilleur : bras 3 (theta*=0,8).\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "=> Bras declare meilleur : bras 3 (theta*=0,8).\r\n"
+ ]
},
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": " Si P > 0.95, on peut arreter : identification du meilleur bras avec confiance.\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ " Si P > 0.95, on peut arreter : identification du meilleur bras avec confiance.\r\n"
+ ]
}
],
"source": [
@@ -1135,6 +1453,7 @@
"int KB = 3; int TB = 60; int MAXNB = 70;\n",
"double[] vraiB = { 0.2, 0.5, 0.8 };\n",
"var rngB = new System.Random(11);\n",
+ "Microsoft.ML.Probabilistic.Math.Rand.Restart(11);\n",
"var armB = new BayesArm[KB];\n",
"for (int k=0;k 0,95 » est déjà franchie. Les posteriors racontent la même histoire en creux : Beta(41,0, 8,0) pour le bras 3 — un posterior concentré, riche en données — contre Beta(2,0, 4,0) pour le bras 1, à peine visité, où le prior uniforme Beta(1,1) se devine encore dans les petits compteurs.\n",
+ "Après seulement 60 tirages Thompson, l'échantillonnage des posteriors donne **P(bras 3 meilleur) = 0,986**, contre 0,011 pour le bras 1 et 0,003 pour le bras 2 — la règle d'arrêt « P > 0,95 » est déjà franchie. Les posteriors racontent la même histoire en creux : Beta(42,0, 10,0) pour le bras 3 — 50 tirages, un posterior concentré, riche en données — contre Beta(1,0, 3,0) pour le bras 1, visité deux fois seulement, où le prior uniforme Beta(1,1) se devine encore dans les petits compteurs.\n",
+ "\n",
+ "Un détail mérite l'attention : le bras 1, de moyenne posterior 0,25, reçoit une probabilité d'être le meilleur **supérieure** à celle du bras 2 (moyenne 0,40). Ce n'est pas une anomalie. Visité deux fois, le bras 1 garde un posterior large (écart-type 0,19), dont la queue atteint encore la zone du bras 3 ; observé huit fois, le bras 2 est plus resserré (0,15). Être le meilleur dépend de toute la distribution, pas seulement de sa moyenne. Ces deux petites probabilités restent des estimations bruitées sur 2000 échantillons ; la réponse sur le bras 3, elle, est nette.\n",
"\n",
"La nuance conceptuelle mérite d'être soulignée : **minimiser le regret** (jouer bien maintenant) et **identifier le meilleur bras** (savoir avec confiance) sont deux objectifs distincts. Le premier tolère de continuer à jouer un bras presque optimal ; le second exige d'accumuler assez de preuves pour pouvoir arrêter. Thompson Sampling sert les deux avec la même machinerie bayésienne — seule change la question posée aux échantillons : « quel bras jouer ce pas ? » ou « quel bras est le meilleur, et à quel niveau de confiance ? ».\n"
]
@@ -1179,10 +1509,10 @@
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@@ -1200,10 +1530,10 @@
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@@ -1225,10 +1555,10 @@
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@@ -1254,25 +1584,27 @@
"id": "cell-eb45673d",
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+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:20:41.504536",
"status": "completed"
},
"tags": []
},
"outputs": [
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Exercice 1 a completer : Thompson sur 4 bras (K=4).\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Exercice 1 a completer : Thompson sur 4 bras (K=4).\r\n"
+ ]
}
],
"source": [
@@ -1290,10 +1622,10 @@
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"metadata": {
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"exception": false,
- "start_time": "2026-07-31T19:52:23.769419",
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@@ -1321,25 +1653,27 @@
"id": "cell-1a9f9028",
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- "shell.execute_reply": "2026-07-31T19:52:23.824904Z"
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},
"papermill": {
- "duration": 0.045861,
- "end_time": "2026-07-31T19:52:23.825118",
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"exception": false,
- "start_time": "2026-07-31T19:52:23.779257",
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:20:41.597258",
"status": "completed"
},
"tags": []
},
"outputs": [
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Exercice 2 a completer : bandit non-stationnaire avec facteur d oubli.\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Exercice 2 a completer : bandit non-stationnaire avec facteur d oubli.\r\n"
+ ]
}
],
"source": [
@@ -1357,10 +1691,10 @@
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@@ -1387,25 +1721,27 @@
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- "start_time": "2026-07-31T19:52:23.838939",
+ "start_time": "2026-09-23T07:20:41.678793",
"status": "completed"
},
"tags": []
},
"outputs": [
{
- "output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
- "text": "Exercice 3 a completer : impact du prior informatif Beta(50,50) sur Thompson.\r\n"
+ "output_type": "stream",
+ "text": [
+ "Exercice 3 a completer : impact du prior informatif Beta(50,50) sur Thompson.\r\n"
+ ]
}
],
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@@ -1423,10 +1759,10 @@
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@@ -1470,8 +1806,20 @@
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\ No newline at end of file